Brazil vs. United States Olympic Soccer Prediction, Odds for USWNT in Gold Medal Match

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the gold medal match between the USWNT and Brazil on Saturday in the 2024 Paris Olympics.

Sophia Smith of the United States celebrates with Trinity Rodman after scoring a goal against Germany in a women's football semifinal match during the Paris 2024 Olympic Summer Games at Lyon Stadium. / Reuters-USA TODAY Sports

The United States women’s national team has reached the gold medal match in the 2024 Paris Olympics, setting up a fantastic showdown with Brazil. 

Team USA needed a goal in extra time from Sophia Smith to get past Germany and into the final while Brazil knocked off Spain, 4-2, in the other semifinal. 

There is plenty of Olympic history between these two teams, as the United States knocked Brazil out of the Olympics in 2000 (semifinals), 2004 (gold medal match), and 2008 (gold medal match). 

The USWNT has not won a gold medal since 2012, failing to medal in 2016 in Rio before winning the bronze in the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo. 

In the knockout stage, the USWNT hasn’t made things easy, scoring just two total goals against Japan and Germany but playing terrific defensively to hold on for 1-0 wins. On the other side, Brazil scored five goals in two matches to defeat France and Spain.

Oddsmakers have the USWNT heavily favored to win this match, and they’re even at +100 to win in regular time. Will the gold medal return to the United States in women’s soccer?

Here’s a look at the odds, how to watch and my best bet for this gold medal match on Saturday. 

Brazil vs. United States Odds and Total

Moneyline (Regular Time)

• Brazil +380
• Team USA: +100
• Draw: +200

To Win

• Brazil: +180
• Team USA: -230

Total (Regular Time)

• 2.5 (Over +140/Under -180)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Brazil vs. United States How to Watch Gold Medal Match

• Date: Saturday, Aug. 10
• Time: 11 a.m. EST
• Venue: Parc des Princes
• How to Watch (TV): USA Network, Peacock

Brazil vs. United States Prediction and Pick

There are a ton of storylines in this matchup, including the return of Marta, Brazil’s legendary team captain and a six-time World Player of the Year. 

After receiving a red card in the group stage, Marta was suspended for both the quarterfinal and semifinal, but Brazil was able to prevail, scoring five goals in the process. This will be Marta’s sixth and final Olympics, leaving plenty of motivation for Brazil to win the whole thing for its captain. 

On the American side, this is all about redemption. After coming up short in Rio and Tokyo, the USWNT finds itself on the brink of glory once again after two impressive wins in the knockout stage. 

Yes, the Americans haven’t exactly lit up the scoreboard in the knockout round, but they’ve been sound defensively, allowing just two total goals all Olympics. 

These two teams have met 40 times in their history with the Americans winning 32 of them and drawing five other times. So, it makes sense that oddsmakers have them favored to win the gold on Saturday. 

While I do believe in the USWNT to come away with a win, I think there is more value in taking the UNDER. 

Remember, the USWNT needed extra time to take down Germany, meaning we’d need to lay the -230 in that situation on Saturday to win a moneyline bet.

Instead, I’m going to take the UNDER 2.5 goals, as three of the four games in the knockout stage by these two teams have finished with just one total score. 

Pick: UNDER 2.5 (-180)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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