Broncos vs. Bills Betting Trend: Sean Payton is Elite as Underdog in NFL Playoffs

Reed Wallach | 9 Hours Ago

Jan 5, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton during the first quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Sean Payton is coaching in the postseason for the first time since 2020 when he was with the New Orleans Saints. 

In Denver now, Payton will look to spring a massive upset on Wild Card Weekend with the Broncos catching nearly double digits against the Buffalo Bills. While Buffalo has a vaunted home field advantage and the MVP front runner Josh Allen, Payton has proven he is quite strong in these situations. 

The former Saints head coach, coaching his first postseason game for the Broncos, is 4-1 against the spread as an underdog in the postseason. The Super Bowl winning coach has proven he can maximize his teams ability to win in the postseason despite odds being against him. 

Sean Payton is 4-1 ATS as an underdog in the NFL Playoffs.@Broncos +9 at Bills pic.twitter.com/Hx3tRSjean

— John Ewing (@johnewing) January 9, 2025

Below, you will find updated betting odds on the Sunday afternoon matchup that kicks off a triple header of NFL postseason action. 

Broncos vs. Bills Odds, Spread and Total 

Spread

• Broncos: +8.5 (-108)
• Bills: -8.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Broncos: +350
• Bills: -460

Total: 47.5 (Over -102/Under -120)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Broncos Defense Primed to Keep Matchup With Bills Close

The Broncos defense has been elite all season, buoyed by shutdown cornerback and Defensive Player of the Year front runner Patrick Surtain II. 

As our betting expert Iain MacMillan notes, this will be the reason why Denver stays inside the massive point spread on Sunday afternoon. 

The Broncos rank second in opponent yards per play (4.9), first in opponent EPA per play, second in opponent success rate, and third in opponent points per game (18.3). Meanwhile, the Bills rank 21st (5.5), 16th, 20th, and 11th (21.6) in those four respective stats.

Yes, the Bills offense is significantly better and could find ways to score at will, but I'm not ready to lay this many points on a team that is clearly inferior on one side of the football. I'll take the points with the Broncos and see if they can challenge the heavily favored Bills.

While this is rookie Bo Nix’s first postseason start, the Broncos defense and wise coaching from Payton make them the side to bet in this Wild Card matchup. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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