Broncos vs. Bills Opening Odds for NFL Wild Card Round (Bills Are Big-Time Favorites vs. Broncos)

Iain MacMillan | Jan 6, 2025

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) looks downfield from the pocket against the Broncos. / Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Denver Broncos have turned their franchise around in their first season with Bo Nix at quarterback. While the Denver faithful were nervous heading into Week 18, they took care of business against the Chiefs and have earned the right to compete in the NFL Playoffs.

They have a tough Wild-Card matchup ahead of them when they hit the road to take on the Bills in Buffalo.

Many people expected this to be a down year for the Bills, but Josh Allen has had the best season of his career and they're now the No. 2 seed in the AFC and look ready for a Super Bowl run. Let's take a look at the opening odds for this AFC matchup.

Broncos vs. Bills Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Broncos +8.5 (-105)
• Bills -8.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Broncos +360
• Bills -460

Total

• OVER 47.5 (-110)
• UNDER 47.5 (-110)

The Bills are the second biggest favorites of the Wild-Card Round. They're 8.5-point favorites on the spread and -460 on the moneyline. If you translate those odds to implied probability, they have an 82.14% chance of advancing to the Divisional Round.

Can the Broncos Upset the Bills?

There's no question the Bills are the better team and are rightful favorites in this game, but the Broncos have a path to victory.

Denver has arguably the best defense in the NFL and its far superior to the Bills defense. The Broncos rank second in opponent yards per play (4.9), first in opponent EPA per play, second in opponent success rate, and third in opponent points per game (18.3). Meanwhile, the Bills rank 21st (5.5), 16th, 20th, and 11th (21.6) in those four respective stats.

That means Josh Allen will have to bring his "A" game to lead the Bills to a win and cover. If he stumbles at all, the Broncos defense is going to be there to pounce.

If Denver is able to pull off the upset, the Broncos will head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in an AFC West rubber match. If the Bills win, they'll host the highest remaining seed in the Divisional Round, which will likely be the Ravens barring an upset by the Steelers. If the Steelers beat the Ravens, the Bills will host the winner of the Texans vs. Chargers.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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