Broncos vs. Chargers Best NFL Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 16 (Justin Herbert Will Struggle)

Iain MacMillan | 16 Hours Ago

Bet the UNDER on Justin Herbert's passing yards total against the Broncos in Week 16. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

A pivotal game for the AFC Playoff picture is on tap for the Week 16 edition of Thursday Night Football. The winner between the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Chargers will virtually lock up a playoff spot while the loser will start to sweat entering the final two weeks.

You can check out the odds and my prediction for this game in my betting preview here. In this article, I'm going to break down three player props I love for this AFC West showdown.

Broncos vs. Chargers Player Prop Bets

• Kimani Vidal OVER 27.5 Rush Yards (-117) via Caesars
• Justin Herbert UNDER 230.5 Pass Yards (-115) via BetMGM
• Courtland Sutton OVER 5.5 Receptions (+116) via FanDuel

Kimani Vidal OVER 27.5 Rush Yards (-117)

Since J.K. Dobbins went down with an injury, you would think Gus Edwards would be the one getting the bulk of the carries, but the majority of snaps have instead been given to third-string back, Kimani Vidal. He played 53% of snaps in Week 14 against the Chiefs and then 67% of snaps in Week 15 against the Buccaneers.

Unfortunately, the Chargers were immediately playing from behind which led to them to abandon the run game in favor of airing it out. If this game remains relatively close, the Chargers will run the ball with Vidal. If he plays over 60% of snaps again, he should cruise over 27.5 rush yards on Thursday night.

Justin Herbert UNDER 230.5 Pass Yards (-115)

Justin Herbert has a tough matchup ahead of him on Thursday night. He's already averaging 211.4 passing yards per game this season now he has to take on one of the best secondaries in the NFL. They're allowing the third fewest yards per pass attempt at 6.0 while allowing a total of 216.7 passing yards per game. They're also first in opponent dropback EPA and second in opponent dropback success rate.

The Chargers would be smart to lean on their run game against the Denver defense.

Courtland Sutton OVER 5.5 Receptions (+116)

Courtland Sutton hauled in only three receptions against the Colts last week, but he still had nine balls thrown his way. He has now seen 8+ targets in seven straight games.

The Chargers have allowed an opponent completion percentage of 67.74% over their last three games, regressing from the dominant defense they were in the first half of the season. I love that we can get Sutton at plus-money to haul in at least six receptions.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!