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Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Final Score Prediction for Sunday Night Football in NFL Week 16

Tampa Bay is eyeing a fifth straight win against a Dallas team that is 1-6 at home in 2024.

Peter Dewey

The Buccaneers are road favorites in Week 16.
The Buccaneers are road favorites in Week 16. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are looking to further their chances to win the NFC South in Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season when they take on the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.

Baker Mayfield and the Bucs have been on fire in recent weeks, winning four games in a row to take the top spot in the NFC South from the Atlanta Falcons. Last week, Tampa Bay had a statement win over the Los Angeles Chargers – 40-17 – and it’s now favored on the road against Dallas.

The Cowboys did win their last game, but they’ve been awful at home in the 2024 season, winning just one of their seven games at AT&T Stadium. 

Baker Mayfield and the Bucs are down a few key weapons on Sunday, including tight end Cade Otton, but that hasn’t changed their odds to win this game in the eyes of oddsmakers.

Using the latest odds and analysis, here’s my prediction for the final score of Sunday night’s matchup. 

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

  • Bucs - 4.5 (-110)
  • Cowboys +4.5 (-110)

Moneyline

  • Bucs: -225
  • Cowboys: +185

Total

  • 48.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

The Cowboys have really struggled at home this season, going 1-6 straight up and 1-6 against the spread – the second-worst ATS record of any NFL team at home in 2024.

Meanwhile, the Bucs are 2-1 ATS as road favorites, winning those games by an average margin of over 16 points per game. 

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Final Score Prediction

Earlier this week, SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared why he thinks the Bucs will win – and cover – in this matchup in his Road to 272 column: 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have become a dark horse team in the NFC that no playoff team will feel confident playing against. I'm shocked they're just four-point favorites against the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.

Their offense is a top-five unit in the NFL. They rank fourth in success rate, seventh in EPA per play, and sixth in yards per play (6.1) this season. Their biggest issue was their defense but they may have figured something out there. The Bucs now rank fifth in opponent EPA per play since Week 11.

Tampa Bay is quietly one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now and Dallas will have nothing to offer them on either side of the ball. Bucky Irving will have a field day against one of the worst run defenses in the league.

It’s hard to disagree with MacMillan’s reasoning, as the Dallas defense has simply not been good enough to make up for Dak Prescott being out for the season.

Given the Cowboys’ struggles against the spread at home this season, I’ll gladly take the Bucs to win this game – and do it handily – on Sunday night. 

Final Score Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Cowboys 17

More NFL Week 16 Betting Stories

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Published
Peter Dewey
PETER DEWEY

Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.

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