Buccaneers vs. Falcons Best NFL Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football in Week 5

Jennifer Piacenti | 4 Hours Ago

Sep 29, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs past New Orleans Saints linebacker D'Marco Jackson (52) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Falcons host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Thursday Night Football.  The game total is set at 43.5.

Here are the player props I am targeting in this NFC South matchup. 

Best NFL Prop Bets for Buccaneers vs. Falcons

Bijan Robinson over 24.5 receiving yards (-120) at BetMGM

Bijan is still sharing the workload in Atlanta with Tyler Allgeier, but watch out for Robinson in the passing game. The Bucs have been solid vs. the run this season, allowing an average of just 88 yards per game to opposing running backs; however, they have allowed the second most catches (26) and receiving yards (243) to opposing runners this season with an 86.7% catch rate and an average of 8.10 yards per target. 

Just this season, the Bucs have allowed 26+ receiving yards to David Montgomery, Saquon Barkley, Brian Robinson, Jr., Austin Ekeler, and Javonte Williams. That's five different running backs in four games played. 

Robinson has averaged four targets and 34 receiving yards per game this year and exceeded this prop in two of four. 

Chris Godwin over 6.5 catches (+115) at DraftKings

The Falcons have been good at limiting wide receivers this season, allowing just 132 yards per game with three total touchdowns to receivers this season. However, if you peek under the hood, they have allowed the third-most catches (28) to receivers in the slot; that's where Godwin has run 65% of his routes this season. 

Godwin's 33 targets, 28 receptions, and 81.8% catch rate lead the team, and his 33.7% first-read rate ranks 13th in the NFL. Those 28 catches are also the third-most in the NFL this season. 

Godwin has exceeded this prop in two of four games this season. I like the plus-money payout for Godwin to do it again on Thursday. 

Rachaad White over 3.5 catches (+115) at DraftKings

You may notice a pattern here. The Falcons aren't giving up big plays, but they are giving up plenty of plays underneath.  

They have allowed only nine completions for more than 20 yards, yet they have allowed the seventh most completions (94). 

Runners vs. the Falcons have averaged five catches per game. The biggest obstacle to cashing this prop is the usage of emerging rookie Bucky Irving in the run game. However, White is still the primary receiving back. He has the third-most receiving yards for the Bucs this year (133) and 14 catches for an average of exactly 3.5 per game.  

For plus money, I'll wager he goes over on Thursday. 

Bijan Robinson under 65.5 rushing  yards (-115) at BetMGM

The Bucs have allowed just 88 yards per game to opposing runners, and Allgeier has had more than 30% of the carries this season.

Last week, he had one more carry than Robinson, and he has been more efficient for the season.  Robinson is averaging just 54 ground yards per game, and I expect Allgeier to be involved enough for Robinson to fall just short of this mark. 

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