Buccaneers vs. Falcons Final Score Prediction for Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 5

Who wins this NFC South clash?

Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson. / Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

The NFC South takes center stage on Thursday Night Football, as the division-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers hit the road to play the new-look Atlanta Falcons and Kirk Cousins.

Despite not scoring an offensive touchdown in Week 4, the Falcons pulled off a last-second win over the New Orleans Saints, keeping them just one game back of the Bucs in the standings heading into this matchup. 

Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield and company put on a clinic against the Philadelphia Eagles, scoring 30-plus points for the second time this season to move to 3-1. Tampa Bay’s only slip up this season came against the Denver Broncos’ top-five defense, and it’ll look to prove that it is still the class of the NFC South as a slight underdog in this game.

Can Cousins, who has been maligned in his career for his play in primetime, pick up a signature win at home with Atlanta?

Using the latest odds an analysis from our betting insiders, I’m attempting to predict the final score – which will give bettors an idea of which side to take – for this Week 5 matchup. 

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Buccaneers +1.5 (-110)
• Falcons -1.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Buccaneers: +105
• Falcons: -125

Total

• 43.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

This game is nearly set as a pick’em, and oddsmakers may view the Bucs as a stronger team on a neutral field this season since they’re just 1.5-point dogs on the road. 

Some key trends to note:

• The UNDER is 3-1 in the Falcons’ four games this season.
• The Buccaneers are 2-0 against the spread as underdogs. 
• Kirk Cousins is 13-20 straight up in primetime games. 

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Final Score Prediction

This matchup is expected to be a close one, and our NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan is siding with the home team in this matchup in his Road to 272 column where he picks every game of the 2024 season.

MacMillan pointed out the Bucs’ deficiencies when it comes to running the ball – and stopping the run – this season as two major reasons why: 

The Falcons have been a peculiar team this season. They're third in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +0.9 but rank in the bottom half of the NFL in almost every single advanced metric like EPA/Play, success rate, and DVOA. What that tells me is they're great at moving the ball and preventing the other team from doing so, but they fail to step up in key plays. That's supported by the fact that they offensively rank 29th in third down conversion rate and 28th in red zone touchdown scoring percentage.

There's little to take away from the Buccaneers metrics, who rank around average in just about every statistic you can find, simple or advanced. What they don't do well is run the ball or stop the run, an area the Falcons can take advantage of.

At the end of the day, the Falcons are only 1.5-point home favorites despite being largely looked at as the better team before the season began. I'm going to try to stick to that evaluation and trust them as the better team in this NFC South primetime matchup.

MacMillan is siding with the favorite here, and I do think it’s notable that the Bucs have struggled against the run this season.

Tampa Bay is allowing 5.0 yards per carry – the fifth worst mark in the NFL – and that could be an issue when trying to contain Bijan Robinson on Thursday.

I also think this Atlanta defense – seventh in opponent yards per play allowed – could give the Bucs some trouble. Tampa Bay has dominated against weak defenses like Washington, Philadelphia and Detroit, who all rank 21st or lower in yards per play allowed in 2024.

I don’t love taking Cousins in primetime, but I’ll trust MacMillan’s analysis to lead us to a win. 

Final Score Prediction: Falcons 22, Buccaneers 20

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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