Buccaneers vs. Falcons Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 5

How to bet Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 5!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive end Logan Hall. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to Atlanta for an NFC showdown on Thursday Night.

The Bucs have started strong, while the Atlanta Falcons have impressed in close matchups this season, including two come-from-behind wins against in conference teams.

Who has the upper hand on Thursday? Let's break it down.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Falcons -2 
• Buccaneers +2 

Moneyline

• Falcons -135
• Buccaneers +114

Total

• 43.5

Buccaneers vs. Falcons How to Watch

• Date: Thursday Sept. 26
• Game Time: 8:15 EST 
• Venue: Mercedes Benz Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): Amazon Prime
• Buccaneers Record: 3-1
• Falcons Record: 2-2

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Betting Trends

• These teams have met four times in the last three seasons. They are tied 2-2.
• ATL is 3-1 ATS in those four matchups
• The Falcons are 1-2 at home this season
• The Bucs are 1-0 in their only road start this year
• The Falcons are 2-0 in conference games this year 
• The Bucs are 3-0 in conference this year 
• Atlanta is 1-3 ATS this year
• Tampa Bay is 3-1 ATS
• Kirk Cousins is 4-6 in his career in Thursday games
• Baker Mayfield is 2-1 on Thursdays 
• Two of three TNF games have gone under this year

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Injury Reports

Buccaneers Injury Report

• S Antoine Winfield Jr. (ankle)- questionable
• WR Mike Evans (shoulder) - questionable 
• DL Calijah Kancey (calf) - questionable 
• T Luke Goedeke (concussion) questionable

Falcons Injury Report

• T Kaleb McGary (knee)- doubtful

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Key Players to Watch

Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin

The Falcons have been good at limiting wide receivers this season, allowing just 132 yards per game with three total touchdowns to receivers this season. However, if you peek under the hood, they have allowed the third-most catches (28) to receivers in the slot this season -- that’s where Godwin has run 65% of his routes this season. 

Godwin’s 33 targets, 28 receptions, and 81.8% catch-rate lead the team, and his 33.7% first-read rate ranks 13th in the NFL.  

Those 28 catches are also the third-most in the NFL this season. Take a look at Godwin’s catches and yards props on Thursday night.

Falcons RB Bijan Robinson

Bijan is still sharing the workload in Atlanta with Tyler Allgeier, but watch out for Robinson in the passing game. The Bucs have been solid vs. the run this season, allowing an average of just 88 yards per game to opposing running backs; however, they have allowed the second most catches (26) and receiving yards (243) to opposing runners this season with an 86.7% catch rate and an average of 8.10 yards per target. Robinson has averaged four targets and 34 receiving yards per game this year.

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Prediction and Pick

The Buccaneers have been off to a hot start behind QB Baker Mayfield  with a 3-1 record and winning both games when they were underdogs.  

Mayfield and the Bucs have scored an average of 24.3 points per game this season (10th), while allowing just 19.5 (11th). They average 2.8 touchdowns per game (sixth).  

They have passed the ball 60% of the time, and Mayfield’s 70% completion rate ranks seventh among starters while his 108 passer rating ranks eighth.

The Falcons have a 2-2 record, but the Eagles gifted them one of the wins. Still, Atlanta seems to have the arrow pointing upward. The defense has been strong this season, allowing just 18.8 points per game, while the offense has scored 21.3.

Kirk Cousins is not playing at the level of Baker Mayfield, completing just 64.7% of his passes and just four passing touchdowns -- however, he has led the Falcons to two comeback wins. Much has been made of Cousins’ record in primetime, but there are reasons to believe that won't matter on Thursday.

If the Falcons defense can keep them competitive (Mayfield has taken 15 sacks this season) then they could win this one. The Falcons are the healthier team, too.

I predict this game will be a close one. Three of the Falcons four games have gone under the listed total and their two victories were by a narrow 1-2 point margin. With Thursday Night games often being low-scoring in going to follow the trend. 

I'm also going to also put a sprinkle on the Bucs ML which looks like good value in what could be a close one.

Pick: UNDER 43.5

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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