Bucks vs. Pacers Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for New Year’s Eve (Dec. 31)

Are the Pacers undervalued as home underdogs?

Are the Pacers undervalued as home underdogs? / Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Last season, the Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers played one of the most heated regular-season series (before eventually meeting in the playoffs) in the NBA, and they’ll play their second matchup of the 2024-25 season on New Year’s Eve.

Milwaukee – the NBA Cup champion – came away with a win the first time these teams met, but the Pacers have been hot as of late, getting to one game below .500 by winning seven of their last 10 contests.

Indiana’s most recent win – an impressive showing against the Boston Celtics – was a sign that it can make a push for a better seed in the East over the next few months. 

The Bucks, on the other hand, are looking to snap a two-game skid on Tuesday night. 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to consider betting in the prop market and my prediction for this divisional matchup on New Year’s Eve. 

Bucks vs. Pacers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Bucks -1.5 (-108)
• Pacers +1.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Bucks: -120
• Pacers: +100

Total

• 230 (Over -110/Under -110)

Bucks vs. Pacers How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Dec. 31
• Time: 3:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
• How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports (Local)
• Bucks record: 16-14
• Pacers record: 16-17

Bucks vs. Pacers Injury Reports

Bucks Injury Report

• Giannis Antetokounmpo – questionable
• AJ Green – probable
• AJ Johnson – out
• Chris Livingston – out
• Khris Middleton – probable
• Tyler Smith – out

Pacers Injury Report

• James Wiseman – out
• Isaiah Jackson – out
• Enrique Freeman – doubtful
• Quenton Jackson – doubtful
• Tristen Newton – doubtful
• Aaron Nesmith – out
• Obi Toppin – questionable

Bucks vs. Pacers Best NBA Prop Bets

Milwaukee Bucks Best NBA Prop Bet

• Khris Middleton OVER 13.5 Points (-120)

After missing the start of the season due to bilateral ankle surgery in the offseason, Khris Middleton is starting to come around as a scorer for the Bucks.

Over his first four games this season, Middleton was shooting just 25.9 percent from the field, averaging 7.0 points per game.

Since then? The three-time All-Star has scored 14 or more points in every game, including three in a row with exactly 21 points. Over this five-game stretch, Middleton is averaging 19.0 points per game on 13.8 shots, shooting 53.6 percent from the field and 60.0 percent from 3.

This stretch has also coincided with Middleton playing more minutes (at least 23 in four straight) while starting each of the last four games. 

He should have a strong game against an Indiana team that is just 23rd in the NBA in defensive rating.

Indiana Pacers Best NBA Prop Bet

• Myles Turner OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-110)

Earlier this season, Turner knocked down three of his five shots from beyond the arc in a game against the Bucks, and the big man is shooting an impressive 39.2 percent from deep during the 2024-25 season.

Turner should be able to get going from 3 against a Milwaukee team that is just 22nd in the NBA in opponent 3-pointers made per game and 18th in opponent 3-point percentage. 

Bucks vs. Pacers Prediction and Pick

A lot of this game will come down to Giannis’ status – he’s listed as questionable – but I think the Pacers are still live to pull off the upset at home.

Indiana is starting to come alive, winning seven of its last 10 games, and it’s been a much better team at home, going 8-5 straight up and posting a positive net rating. Overall, the Pacers are just 19th in the NBA with a -2.4 net rating.

Milwaukee comes into this game on a two-game skid, and it’s still just two games over .500 despite a major surge around the NBA Cup earlier this month. 

The Bucks are just 2-5 against the spread as road favorites in the 2024-25 season while the Pacers are 2-1 ATS as home dogs. 

Indiana is still down a key rotation player in Aaron Nesmith, but it’s getting healthier and ranks eighth in the NBA in net rating over its last 10 games. Over that same stretch, Milwaukee is just 15th. 

Pick: Pacers Moneyline (+100)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.