Bucks vs. Warriors Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Tuesday, March 18

The Bucks are favored on the road on Tuesday night.

The Bucks are favored on the road on Tuesday night. / Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors lost on Monday night against the Denver Nuggets, and now they’ll play the second night of a back-to-back against one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, the Milwaukee Bucks, on Tuesday.

Golden State had a seven-game winning streak snapped, but a Minnesota Timberwolves loss to the Indiana Pacers kept the Warriors in the No. 6 seed through Monday’s action. 

Meanwhile, Milwaukee is coming off a loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday night and is far from a lock to end up in a top-four spot in the Eastern Conference this season. These teams met shortly after the Jimmy Butler trade on Feb. 10, and Golden State picked up a 14-point win.

However, Giannis Antetokounmpo did not play in that game due to a calf injury. He is listed as probable for this matchup as he looks to continue his All-NBA season. On the Warriors side, it appears Steph Curry could miss this game for rest. 

Kerr: Warriors will consider resting Stephen Curry on Tuesday.

— Underdog NBA (@Underdog__NBA) March 18, 2025

With the Warriors set as underdogs at home, how should bettors wager on this matchup?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this clash between two NBA Finals hopefuls. 

Bucks vs. Warriors Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Bucks -3.5 (-110)
• Warriors +3.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Bucks: -166
• Warriors: +140

Total

• 230 (Over -110/Under -110)

Bucks vs. Warriors How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, March 18
• Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Chase Center
• How to Watch (TV): NBA TV
• Bucks record: 38-29
• Warriors record: 39-29

Bucks vs. Warriors Injury Reports

Bucks Injury Report

• Giannis Antetokounmpo – probable
• Damian Lillard – probable
• Jericho Sims – out
• Bobby Portis – out
• Gary Trent Jr. – probable

Warriors Injury Report

• Not submitted yet

Bucks vs. Warriors Best NBA Prop Bets

Milwaukee Bucks Best NBA Prop Bet

• Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 27.5 Points (-110)

Could this be a bounce back game for Giannis? I shared why I think he’s a solid bet in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – this morning: 

I’m buying low on Giannis after he was held to just 21 points in the Bucks’ loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday.

Giannis is still averaging 30.4 points per game while shooting 60.3 percent from the field this season, and he’s cleared 27.5 points in six of his last 10 games, averaging 28.0 points per game over that stretch.

The usage will be there for the former league MVP (Giannis is taking almost 19 shots per game over this 10-game stretch), and the Warriors lack an insider presence that can really deter him at the rim. Golden State gave up 38 points to Aaron Gordon – even with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray out – on Monday night.

Also, Golden State is in the top half of the NBA in opponent free throws attempted per game, meaning Giannis should be able to get to the line a good amount as well tonight. He’s a steal at this number after a down game against the No. 1 defense in the NBA.  

Golden State Warriors Best NBA Prop Bet

• Steph Curry OVER 24.5 Points (-120)

As I mentioned earlier, there’s a real chance Curry sits out of this game, but if he does play, this is a great prop for him.

Curry is averaging 28.6 points per game over his last 20 matchups, and while he failed to clear this line on Monday night, he’s picked up 25 or more points in 13 of those 20 matchups. 

The Bucks are allowing the most points per game to the point guard position this season, including a 38-point game to Curry before the All-Star break. Don’t be shocked if Steph goes off – if the Warriors play him – on Tuesday.  

Bucks vs. Warriors Prediction and Pick

Based on these odds, it appears that Steph Curry will sit out this game after he was listed as questionable for Monday’s game against Denver.

The Warriors have won eight of their last 10 games, so they may be able to afford to sit Steph for one night even with the Minnesota Timberwolves right behind them in the standings for the No. 6 seed. 

But, if Steph doesn’t play, I’m not sold on Golden State winning this game. The backup point guard for Golden State – Brandin Podziemski – has been out of the lineup, and if Curry sits, this could be a game where Steve Kerr sits all of his veterans, including Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green.

Meanwhile, the Bucks need every win they can get to stay in the No. 4 seed in the East, and they have both Giannis and Damian Lillard expected to play in this matchup. 

Not only that, but the Bucks have been really solid over their last 10 games, ranking 12th in defensive rating and eighth in net rating. I think they can knock off Golden State – if Curry does sit – on Tuesday night. 

Pick: Bucks -3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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