Buffalo vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Bahamas Bowl

Reed Wallach | Dec 31, 2024

Sep 28, 2024; East Hartford, Connecticut, USA; Buffalo Bulls quarterback C.J. Ogbonna (7) runs the ball against the Connecticut Huskies in the first quarter at Rentschler Field at Pratt & Whitney Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-Imagn Images / David Butler II-Imagn Images

The final non College Football Playoff bowl game on the bowl calendar is Buffalo vs. Liberty in the Bahamas Bowl. 

The Bulls qualified for a bowl game under first-year head coach Pete Lembo, a successful campaign for the team, and will look to cap it with an impressive win against a Liberty team that fell short of College Football Playoff goals. 

Liberty will be a patchwork unit after opt-outs, which has impacted the betting odds. Let’s break down the Bahamas Bowl with our full betting preview. 

Buffalo vs. Liberty Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Buffalo: -1.5 (-110)
• Liberty: +1.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Buffalo: -118
• Liberty: -102

Total: 51.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Buffalo vs. Liberty How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, January 4th
• Game Time: 11:00 AM EST
• Venue: Thomas Robinson Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
• Buffalo Record: 8-4
• Liberty Record: 8-3

Buffalo vs. Liberty Key Players to Watch

Buffalo

C.J. Ogbonna: The senior enjoyed a strong season with the Bulls, totaling 27 touchdowns and more than 2,500 yards with only five interceptions. The Buffalo offense wasn’t overpowering by any means but found its stride in MAC play to put together an above-average campaign despite ranking outside the top 110 in net yards per play by limiting mistakes, ranking 32nd in turnover margin per game. 

Liberty

Nate Hampton: With Kaidon Salter off to Colorado, and Ryan Burger spending time in the concussion protocol during bowl practices, there’s a chance that the team only has Hampton available for the Bahamas Bowl. With limited resources around him, the seldom-used junior will likely enter with plenty of questions about his play and the state of the team. 

Buffalo vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

Liberty has nearly as many opt-outs as any team in the country in bowl season. 

After a failed season for Jamey Chadwell’s group, the team has had a mass exodus on the roster. For starters, Salter has transferred, but there’s more with three starters on the offensive line, namely Xavior Gray, who was an All-Conference center. Further, the team will be down-starting defensive tackle Bryce Dixon. 

Liberty’s offense was strong this season, but the drop-off from Salter to the group of backups is staggering as the team will not mirror the same roster that ranked top 10 in success rate on the season. 

What’ll stand out is the team’s shaky defense that struggled to get into the backfield much this season against Buffalos’ explosive rush offense. 

This is a motivation mismatch for a first-year head coach in Lembo with his Bulls team that put together a strong season against Chadwell’s Flames that have been gutted by the transfer portal and limped to the finish line after failing to follow up its Conference USA title last season. 

Line movement has gone towards Buffalo since this game was announced, and I believe the team can win the final non-CFP bowl game. 

PICK: Buffalo -1.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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