Cavaliers vs. Heat Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, Jan. 29

Are the Miami Heat undervalued as home underdogs?
Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo is a solid prop target tonight.
Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo is a solid prop target tonight. / Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

The Miami Heat won’t have Jimmy Butler (suspension) on Wednesday night, but they’re looking to hang on to the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference when they take on the Cleveland Cavaliers at Kaseya Center.

The Cavs are just 26th in defensive rating over their last 10 games, leading to a pedestrian 5-5 record. Still, Cleveland has the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, and it’s favored on the road against Miami.

The Heat picked up a huge win over the Orlando Magic on Monday in double overtime, and they’re looking to stay afloat in the playoff picture while the Butler saga continues ahead of the trade deadline.

So, how should bettors wager on these two Eastern Conference squads on Wednesday?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my game prediction for this matchup. 

Cavaliers vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

  • Cavs -7 (-112)
  • Heat +7 (-108)

Moneyline

  • Cavs: -285
  • Heat: +230

Total

  • 226.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Cavaliers vs. Heat How to Watch

  • Date: Wednesday, Jan. 29
  • Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Kaseya Center
  • How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports Sun, Bally Sports Ohio
  • Cavs record: 37-9
  • Heat record: 23-22

Cavaliers vs. Heat Injury Reports

Cavs Injury Report

  • Caris LeVert – out
  • Dean Wade – out
  • Isaac Okoro – out
  • JT Thor – out
  • Luke Travers – out
  • Darius Garland – out
  • Sam Merrill – questionable

Heat Injury Report

  • Jimmy Butler – out
  • Tyler Herro – available
  • Jaime Jaquez Jr. – probable
  • Josh Richardson – out
  • Isaiah Stevens – out
  • Dru Smith – out
  • Duncan Robinson – available

Cavaliers vs. Heat Best NBA Prop Bets

Cleveland Cavaliers Best NBA Prop Bet

  • Ty Jerome UNDER 5.5 Assists (-154)

I’m surprised to see this number so high for Jerome, who has failed to pick up six or more dimes in every game since Dec. 20. While Darius Garland is out for this game – which could lead to a Jerome start – the former first-round pick is averaging just 4.5 assists per game as a starter this season. 

Miami loves to slow the game down (27th in pace) so there’s going to be less chances for Jerome to pick up assists than a typical game if the Heat can control the pace. I think this prop is a little too high for the Cavs guard tonight. 

Miami Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

  • Bam Adebayo OVER 9.5 Rebounds (-115)

Earlier on Wednesday, I shared my favorite prop bet for Miami Heat star Bam Adebayo in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points

The move to put rookie Kel’el Ware in the starting lineup has really helped Miami Heat star Bam Adebayo – especially on the glass.

Bam is averaging 10.0 rebounds per game on 16.2 rebound chances per game this season, but he’s picked up 10 or more boards in six consecutive games and each of Ware’s last four starts.

Earlier this season, Bam had a big game on the glass against Cleveland, grabbing 13 rebounds in just over 36 minutes of playing time. Despite featuring Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen in the frontcourt, the Cavs are just 18th in the NBA in rebounding percentage this season.  

Since Ware moved into the starting lineup, Bam is averaging 12.5 boards on 19.0 chances per game. He should have another big game on the glass tonight. 

Cavaliers vs. Heat Prediction and Pick

With Garland, Okoro, LeVert and Wade out for this game, I think the Cavs could be in trouble as road favorites.

Cleveland has come back to earth as of late after a red hot start to the season, losing five of 10 and ranking 15th in the NBA in net rating over that stretch.

While the Heat have a lower ceiling without Butler, they are 12-9 straight up at home and showed some serious resilience against Orlando. With Kel’el Ware in the starting lineup, Miami has the bigs to combat Cleveland’s lineup of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.

I think the absence of Garland – who is having a career season shooting the ball – is not being correctly valued in this game.

The Cavs don’t have a ton of wing depth, and now they can’t rely on Donovan Mitchell and Garland to just carry them with a big scoring game. 

I’m going to back the Heat as home underdogs – even though they’re just 2-3 against the spread in that spot this season. 

Pick: Heat +7 (-108)


Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.


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Peter Dewey
PETER DEWEY

Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.