Champions League Odds: Inter Milan, Aston Villa Undervalued in Futures Market

What are the best bets in the Champions League futures market?

Manchester City only earned a point against Inter Milan in Champions League Matchweek 1. / IMAGO/Nicolò Campo

European soccer is on an international break this week which gives us the perfect opportunity to take stock of where things are in the Champions League. 

UEFA abandoned the group stage format and moved to a 36-team league format starting this season. Teams will play eight games in the league phase. Top eight will directly qualify for the Round of 16 while the teams that finish 9 through 24 will play a preliminary knockout round. The winners of that round will face the eight teams that already qualified for the next stage. 

We are now two games into the 2024-25 Champions League season under the new format. It is still too early to determine whether the change has been positive or negative. However, it is not too early to tell who the favorites and the sleepers are. 

To no one’s surprise, the winners of the last three tournaments, Real Madrid and Manchester City, are the early favorites. It can be tempting to bet on Real Madrid to win it all every season since they have been synonymous with Champions League, having won six out of the last 11 titles. Yet, not only have they looked unconvincing so far this season, but they also don’t provide much value in terms of betting odds at +350. 

Champions League Title Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Manchester City +310

Real Madrid +350

Arsenal +700

Bayern Munich +800

Liverpool +800

Barcelona +1000

Inter Milan +1200

Leverkusen +1400

Aston Villa +2000

Atletico Madrid +2000

Paris Saint-Germain +2000

Dortmund +2000

Juventus +2500

Atalanta +4000

Why Inter Milan and Aston Villa Are the Best Bets on the Board

The Champions League and the domestic leagues are completely different beasts. After the league phase of the Champions League ends, the knockout stage begins where teams play home-and-away fixtures starting in Round of 16. The ability to play elimination games is a different skill. It requires adjustments, game-specific plans, and scheme versatility rather than a dominant Plan A. 

There is a reason Pep Guardiola has only won three Champions League titles but 12 domestic league titles in 15 years of coaching. 

Teams like Manchester City, Arsenal, Bayern Munich, and Liverpool will have a massive advantage in the league stage of the tournament. They have an established system and the talent to dominate weaker opponents and finish in top-eight. 

When the knockout stage starts, however, their advantages are minimized. More reactive sides like Inter Milan and Aston Villa close the gap in elimination games against seemingly stronger teams. 

Inter Milan already proved how dangerous they can be in 2023 when they unexpectedly made the Champions League final. They had an excellent chance to beat Manchester City in the final as well but came up just short. They continue with the same style of play and pretty much the same roster under manager Simone Inzaghi and should be a force to be reckoned with. 

In Week 1 of this season’s Champions League, Man City failed to crack the Inter defense and had to settle for a goalless draw. Inter plays an unorthodox 3-5-2 formation under Inzaghi that creates a ton of problems against opponents. They are willing to concede possession to the opponent and like to take advantage of the spaces on the counter attack. That can be a winning formula in elimination games, and they are clearly undervalued at +1200. 

Aston Villa under Unai Emery has similar advantages. Emery is one of the best tacticians in the world when it comes to game-specific plans. It’s hard to find a manager better suited to play in elimination games than the 52-year-old Spaniard. There is a reason he has made it to five Europa League finals in the last 11 years, winning four. 

Villa proved how dangerous they can be when they defeated Bayern Munich in Gameweek 2. In the Premier League last season, they beat Manchester City and Arsenal. They have been a massive thorn in the side of English giants over the past few seasons. 

They certainly don’t have the top-tier European experience their competitors here do. But, they are young, intense, and athletic, and have a style of play that is extremely difficult to deal with. 

At +2000, it is hard to find a better value bet on the board.

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.