Chargers vs. Broncos Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 6 (Trust the Home Underdog?)

Can Denver win a fourth straight game?

Denver Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos have won three games in a row, getting some strong play from rookie quarterback Bo Nix in Week 5, but they find themselves as underdogs at home in Week 6 against the Los Angeles Chargers. 

Los Angeles is fresh off a much-needed bye week, as quarterback Justin Herbert has been dealing with an ankle injury that limited him in losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs.

Denver currently holds the No. 2 spot in the AFC West, but a Chargers win would flip that after Week 6.

Using the latest odds, analysis, and trends, here’s a prediction for the final score of the Broncos-Chargers matchup on Sunday. 

Chargers vs. Broncos Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Spread

• Chargers -3 (+100)
• Broncos +3 (-122)

Moneyline

• Chargers: -154
• Broncos: +130

Total

• 35.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Denver enters this game as one of the best teams in the NFL against the spread (4-1) and now it’s getting points at home? 

We’ll see how Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers squad responds in this matchup after two straight losses before the bye. 

Chargers vs. Broncos Final Score Prediction

Denver has arguably the best defense in the NFL this season, allowing seven, nine and 18 points over the last three games while allowing the third fewest yards per play in the league. 

NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan like the Broncos to upset the Chargers in Week 6, and he broke down his play in this week’s edition of his Road to 272 bets: 

We've only seen the Chargers in four games but I have some concerns about this team. They're allowing the third-highest pressure rate in the NFL with Herbert being pressured on 26.0% of dropbacks. Joe Alt will likely be back for them but Rashawn Slater is still questionable. Now they have to take on a Broncos defense that is not only dominant in the secondary, but they have the seventh highest pressure rate at 25.1%. They're also third in sack percentage, taking down the opposing quarterback on 10.8% of their dropbacks.

While people are pointing to the Broncos' offense as incompetent, it's worth noting these two offenses are 25th and 26th in EPA/Play. The Los Angeles offense isn't that much better than Denver's.

I've bet on the Broncos almost every week this season and I'm going to continue to lean on their defense and Bo Nix, who has looked better the past few weeks.

If the Broncos win this game, it’s likely to be a low-scoring affair since they haven’t been a dominant offense in 2024. With a low total of 35.5, a game in the teens would make some sense. 

Final Score Prediction: Broncos 16, Chargers 13

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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