Chelsea vs. Arsenal Prediction, Odds, and Best Bets for Premier League Week 11

Can Arsenal end their winless streak against Cole Palmer and Chelsea in Sunday's London derby?

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As the much dreaded international break once again awaits us on the other side of the weekend, there are multiple juicy matchups on the Premier League Week 11 slate. The highest-profile game of all is the London derby between Chelsea and Arsenal. 

Both teams are coming into the derby far from their peak form. The fourth-place Chelsea only won once in their last four games while fifth-place Arsenal has one point in their last three games. 

While both sides will desperately want to get back to winning ways, it is more imperative that Arsenal come away with the win. 

Chelsea fans and management don’t expect manager Enzo Maresca to challenge for the title in his first year. A top-four finish for them will suffice. 

For Arsenal, however, this is their championship window. Only a month ago, they were favored to win the Premier League in betting odds, presumably for the first time in years. Man City is far from dominant after Rodri’s injury and Kevin De Bruyne’s continued absences. Liverpool, as impressive as they have been, is under new management after Jürgen Klopp’s departure and has questionable depth for a championship run. 

The conditions for an Arsenal title are all present. Yet, Mikel Arteta’s side has looked far from that level. 

Star midfielder Martin Odegaard’s absence has been deeply felt as the Gunners are missing his creativity, passing, and playmaking, especially in the final third of the pitch. When you add the lack of a traditional striker on the roster, you end up with a team struggling to create chances and convert the few ones they can generate. They will look to turn this tide against their intercity rivals. 

Let’s dig deeper into what we can expect from this high-intensity derby. 

Chelsea vs. Arsenal Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Moneyline:

Chelsea: +185
Draw: +240
Arsenal: +145

Total Goals: 

Over 2.5: -135
Under 2.5: +110

Both Teams to Score:

Yes: -175
No: +140

Double Chance: 

Chelsea or Arsenal: -330
Tie or Arsenal: -245
Chelsea or Tie: -185

Chelsea vs. Arsenal How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, November 10
• Time: 11:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Stamford Bridge, London, UK
• How to Watch (TV): NBC Sports, USA Network

Chelsea vs. Arsenal Prediction and Pick

Neither team wants to head to the international break with a derby loss. As desperate as both sides are to end their skids, their priority will be not losing. 

Suffering a third loss in four games could kick off serious Mikel Arteta criticism on the Arsenal side. For Chelsea, who lost to Liverpool and Man City and tied Man Utd this season, this will be a chance to finally prove themselves against a Big Six opponent.

Therefore, we can expect a cautious approach from both sides.

Arsenal has been preferring a more reactive strategy against solid opponents, not shying away from allowing possession and sitting deeper. As a result, they rank a disappointing eighth in the league in expected goals (xG) and tied for eighth in actual goals scored so far this season. 

Shockingly, seven of the 17 PL goals for Arsenal have come from set pieces. Only 10 goals from open play in 10 games is a disastrous number for a team trying to win the title. They are coming off a midweek fixture against Inter in the Champions League where they failed to score again. 

Chelsea, on the other hand, is a shaky defensive side. They allowed at least one goal in each of their last five games. How much Arsenal will be able to create when they are in possession against Chelsea’s defense will be the defining question of the game. 

With Cole Palmer as the focal point of their attack, Chelsea has a massive edge. He is a scoring and playmaking threat that Arsenal simply doesn’t have. However, Arsenal has an advantage in their defensive foundation, continuity, and overall talent level. 

After all that, it’s hard to pick a winner. Betting on Under 2.5 or 3.5 goals could be safe choices but let’s take a risk and go with a draw here at plus money for all the reasons above. 

Pick: Draw +240