Chiefs' Odds to Go Undefeated Are Ridiculous, But There Is a Way to Bet It

Should you bet on the Kansas City Chiefs to go undefeated? There's a smarter way than taking this prop.

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is trying to get the Chiefs to 17-0 this season. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The Kansas City Chiefs kept their undefeated season going in Week 10 thanks to a last-second field goal block against the Denver Broncos that secured a 16-14 comeback victory. They’re now 9-0 on the season with a highly-anticipated game against the 8-2 Buffalo Bills set for Week 11. 

The Chiefs have looked anything but dominant during their “perfect” start to the season, however. It’s been nothing like the 2007 Patriots, that's for sure. Despite that, oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook have dropped Kansas City’s odds to go undefeated to +450, representing an 18.2% implied probability of it happening. 

That’s a suckers bet. The Chiefs are 2.5-point underdogs and +110 on the moneyline at DraftKings against the Bills this week. They still have games against the Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers and Broncos, all teams with .500 or better records currently, left on their schedule.

The Las Vegas Raiders game is the day after Thanksgiving on a short week and the Steelers game is on Christmas Day on a short week. Either one of those could be a letdown game. 

FanDuel Sportsbook has the Chiefs odds to go undefeated at +800, a much better number but still not high enough to warrant a bet. 

If you do want to bet the Chiefs to go undefeated, the smart play is to bet their moneyline each week and roll over the profits. Here’s why. 

If you bet $100 on them to go undefeated at +450 odds and they do, you win $450. But if you bet $100 on them to beat the Bills at +110 odds, you win $110. They play the Panthers and Raiders the two weeks after, and their moneyline odds will be bad, something in the -600 realm. If you roll $110 at those odds, you’d be around $128 after the Panthers game and around $150 after the Raiders game. 

From there, the compounding growth of your initial bet will take you north of $450 if you bet the Chiefs moneyline against the Chargers, Browns, Texans, Steelers and Broncos to finish the season. Even though the Chiefs will likely be favored in all of those games, the initial bet will grow enough to get you past that $450 number.  

The other benefit of betting this way is it gives you a get-out-of-jail-free pass if another injury strikes the Chiefs or if the Chiefs decide to rest players later in the season, something Andy Reid is known for.

If you bet them to go undefeated, you’re stuck in that bet if either of those scenarios plays out. If you bet them on the moneyline each week, you can stop whenever you want. 

The +800 odds are better, but still don’t protect you if something unforeseen occurs. 

The good news against the Bills this week is the Chiefs are 11-3 straight up as underdogs with Patrick Mahomes as their starter. They were underdogs when they played in Buffalo in the AFC Divisional playoffs last year and won 27-24. Mahomes won his only other start in Buffalo in 2020. Overall, he's 4-3 against the Bills all time, though he's 1-3 against them in the regular season.

Mahomes is 40-6 in his career against the other teams remaining on the Chiefs’ schedule. 

The Chiefs could go undefeated this season. They haven’t looked dominant, but they keep finding ways to win. In the NFL, winning when you don’t play well says a lot about the coaching and the mentality of the players. 

Despite that, there’s a smarter way to bet them to go 17-0, and it’s not a straight-up bet at +450 odds. It’s betting the moneyline and rolling your winnings over, providing a big potential payout at the end of the season, but also an opportunity to stop betting if something goes wrong. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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