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Chiefs vs. Bills Best NFL Prop Bets for Week 11 (Josh Allen's Rushing Yard Prop is a Can't Miss)

Reed Wallach

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has had some epic matchups against the Kansas City Chiefs throughout his career, and Sunday's clash should be another one of them.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has had some epic matchups against the Kansas City Chiefs throughout his career, and Sunday's clash should be another one of them. / Jamie Germano / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Arguably the most anticipated game of the 2024 NFL season goes down in Buffalo on Sunday afternoon when the two-time defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs travel to face the Bills. 

An instant classic is in store for this one with a playoff atmosphere in Western New York, and with the Chiefs undefeated season on the line, and Josh Allen hoping to pad his MVP resume, the stars are where the focus of this player prop article is. 

Here’s three player props for the Chiefs vs. Bills in Week 11. 

Best Prop Bets for Chiefs vs. Bills in NFL Week 11

  • Patrick Mahomes to Throw an Interception (-132)
  • Josh Allen OVER 37.5 Rushing Yards
  • Travis Kelce OVER 6.5 Receptions

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Patrick Mahomes to Throw an Interception (-132)

Mahomes has been more protective of the pigskin of late, not tossing an interception in the last two games, but that doesn’t him absolve him from the fact that he has thrown a pick in every other game this season. 

The Chiefs quarterback will face a turnover-focused Bills defense that is fifth in the NFL in interceptions this season with 11. 

This game will feature scoring, which means the onus will be on Mahomes to throw at a higher than expected rate, meaning that there will be more opportunities for the Bills defense. 

With a bet that has hit in seven of nine games, I’m willing to go back to the well.

Josh Allen OVER 37.5 Rushing Yards

Big game? Allen is going to use his legs. 

This is a number that is being priced as a median outcome. Allen has rushed for 29 yards per game on average, going over this number in four of nine games. But given the stakes, I’m going to bank on a ton more volume. 

While postseason numbers skew this number even higher, Allen has gone over this mark on against the Chiefs in four regular season games, putting up an average of 41 yards per game on the ground. 

With high stakes, I’m going to go to old reliable with Allen’s rushing yards. 

Travis Kelce OVER 6.5 Receptions

In a similar vein to Allen’s rushing yards, Kelce remains one of the most reliable players in football. 

While he may not be the high volume bellcow that he used to be, Kelce is still Mahomes' favorite target and is starting to round into postseason form. 

Kelce has at least eight catches in the last three games as the Chiefs offense continues to trend upwards. He’ll be facing a stingy Bills defense, but I expect the targets to continue to go the tight end’s way as the Chiefs still look for consistency in the pass catching group. 

He’s averaging just over six catches in four regular season games against the Bills with Mahomes at quarterback with at least nine targets. 

I’m going to stick with Kelce to be a stat sheet stuffer in this big game. 

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Reed Wallach
REED WALLACH

Reed is a Senior Editor at SI Betting. He grew up in New Jersey and graduated from the University of Wisconsin. His passion lies with the Brooklyn Nets, but is always hunting for an edge.

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