Chiefs vs. Bills Odds Movement: Total Rising Ahead of AFC Championship Game

The total in Chiefs vs. Bills has started to increase ahead of AFC Championship.
The total in Chiefs vs. Bills has started to increase ahead of AFC Championship. / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

We're just hours away from the start of this year's edition of the AFC Championship in what will is a highly-anticipated meeting between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.

It will be the fourth time these two quarterback have met in the playoffs and Mahomes has come away victorious in the first three instances. This time, Allen has a chance to silence his doubters and a win would advance his Bills to the Super Bowl for the first time since the 1993 season.

While the spread has remained relatively steady at Chiefs -1.5 through the week, the total has seen some late movement. Let's take a look.

Bills vs. Chiefs Odds Movement

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Bills vs. Chiefs Opening Odds

Spread

  • Bills +1.5 (-108)
  • Chiefs -1.5 (-112)

Moneyline

  • Bills +105
  • Chiefs -125

Total

  • OVER 47.5 (-110)
  • UNDER 47.5 (-110)

Bills vs. Chiefs Odds on Championship Sunday

Spread

  • Bills +1.5 (-105)
  • Chiefs -1.5 (-115)

Moneyline

  • Bills +105
  • Chiefs -125

Total

  • OVER 48.5 (-112)
  • UNDER 48.5 (-108)

As you can see, the spread has shifted a minuscule amount and the moneyline odds have stayed exactly the same since the odds were released last weekend. Where we've seen the shift, is on the total. It has moved from 47.5 to 48.5 with the juiced side on the OVER. This tells us that professional and sharp bettors have bet the OVER enough that sportsbooks have been forced to adjust the number by a point.

I agree with the odds movement and I broke down in this morning's best bets article why I like the OVER in the AFC Championship:

Considering my main reason for backing the Chiefs is a lack of faith in the Bills' defense, I'm going to lean toward the OVER cashing in this game as well. When we see Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes face off in the playoffs it seems to be a high-scoring game more often than not as both quarterbacks try to drag their teams to the Super Bowl.

Both offenses enter today's game ranking inside the top 10 in both EPA per play and success rate. Most notably, the Bills are the second-best offense in terms of EPA per play, behind only the Ravens, who they eliminated last week.

Let's bet on plenty of points being put up in tonight's marquee matchup.


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Iain MacMillan
IAIN MACMILLAN

Originally from Nova Scotia, Iain MacMillan is a senior editor covering betting, with a focus on NFL, NHL, and golf. He hosts the Bacon Bets Podcast and has been featured on VSIN, BetQL and Monumental Sports Network. He is a member of the Metropolitan Golf Writers Association and his beloved Falcons and Maple Leafs break his heart on a yearly basis.