Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 11

Iain MacMillan | Nov 12, 2024

Jan 21, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) greets Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) following the 2024 AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills rivalry has become a staple every NFL season. It might be considered this generations Patriots vs. Colts and Brady vs. Manning. Of course, Patrick Mahomes would be the Brady in this comparison, and Manning the Josh Allen.

The latest iteration of the must-watch matchup is set to take place in Buffalo in Week 11 and despite the Chiefs being undefeated, they're set as underdogs against Allen and the Bills.

Let's dive into the odds and everything else you need to know to bet on this Sunday's showdown.

Chiefs vs. Bills Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Spread

• Chiefs +2.5 (-110)
• Bills -2.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Chiefs +115
• Bills -135

Total

• OVER 46 (-110)
• UNDER 46 (-110)

Chiefs vs. Bills How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, November 17
• Game Time: 4:25 pm et
• Venue: Highmark Stadium
• How to Watch: CBS
• Chiefs Record: 9-0
• Bills Record: 8-2

Chiefs vs. Bills Betting Trends

• Chiefs are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games
• The UNDER is 5-2 in the Chiefs' last seven games
• Chiefs have won eight straight road games
• Patrick Mahomes is 12-2 straight up and 11-1-1 ATS as an underdog
• Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five games
• The OVER is 7-0 in the Bills' last seven games

Chiefs vs. Bills Injury Reports

Chiefs Injury Report

• JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR - Questionable
• Isiah Pacheco, RB - IR
• Wanya Morris, OT - Questionable
• Charles Omenihu, DE - PUP-R
• Jared Wiley, TE - IR

Bills Injury Report

• Reggie Gilliam, FB - Questionable
• Amari Cooper, WR - Questionable
• Matt Milano, LB - IR-R
• Keon Coleman, WR - Out
• Dalton Kincaid, TE - Questionable

Chiefs vs. Bills Key Players to Watch

Kansas City Chiefs

DeAndre Hopkins: The Chiefs' new acquisition at wide receiver has played a big role in their success the last three games, already making an impact in the red zone and serving as a big body for Mahomes to target at wideout. He will continue to impact the Chiefs' success in the second half of the season.

Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen: The Bills quarterback is second on the odds list to be named NFL MVP behind only Lamar Jackson. A win against the Chiefs backed by a strong personal performance will pad his resume as we head into the second half of the season.

Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction and Pick

In this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets", I broke down why I think we have to bet on the Chiefs to cover the spread:

I'm done trying to big-brain games involving the Chiefs. I've been the guy who time and time again has bet against the Chiefs in big games. I cite metrics, advanced analytics, and other variables, convinced the Chiefs aren't as good as their opponent. Then I live to regret that almost every single time. I'm done making that mistake.

I don't know if it's voodoo or some type of clutch gene that belongs only to the likes of Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes, but a 12-1-1 career spread record as an underdog speaks for itself. I will take the points with the Chiefs in the latest edition of a Josh Allen vs. Mahomes showdown.

Pick: Chiefs +2.5 (-110)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!