Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 18

Can Denver reach the playoffs for the first time since Super Bowl 50?

The Broncos have failed to cover the spread in back-to-back games. / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Week 18 is pretty simple for Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos:

Win and get in. Lose, and your season is over. 

Denver has squandered back-to-back chances to clinch a playoff spot in the AFC, losing to the Los Angeles Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals. Now, Denver is in danger of losing the final playoff spot in the AFC, as both Cincinnati and Miami could overtake it if the Broncos lose on Sunday.

Luckily, the Broncos are facing a Kansas City Chiefs team that has already locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC and is expected to rest Patrick Mahomes and several other starters in Week 18. At 15-1, the Chiefs have the best record in the NFL, putting themselves in a prime spot to reach the Super Bowl for the third straight season. 

Denver is favored by 10 points in this game at home, but can it finally break its long playoff drought that goes back to Super Bowl 50?

Here’s a full breakdown of this AFC West matchup, including the latest odds, betting trends, players to watch, and my prediction. 

Chiefs vs. Broncos Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Chiefs +10 (-110)
• Broncos -10 (-110)

Moneyline

• Chiefs: +390
• Broncos: -520

Total

• 38.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Chiefs vs. Broncos How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Jan. 5
• Time: 4:25 p.m. EST
• Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Chiefs record: 15-1
• Broncos record: 9-7

Chiefs vs. Broncos Betting Trends

• The Broncos are 11-5 against the spread this season.
• Denver has failed to cover in back-to-back games for the first time this season.
• The Chiefs are 8-8 against the spread this season.
• Denver is 5-0 against the spread as a home favorite in 2024.
• Kansas City is 1-1 against the spread as an underdog this season.
• The OVER is 10-5-1 in the Broncos’ 16 games.
• The UNDER is 9-7 in the Chiefs’ 16 games. 

Chiefs vs. Broncos Injury Reports

Chiefs Injury Report

• Mike Pennel Jr. – questionable
• Isiah Pacheco – questionable
• Chris Jones – questionable
• DJ Humphries – questionable
• Chamarri Conner – questionable

Broncos Injury Report

• Tyler Badie – questionable

Chiefs vs. Broncos Key Players to Watch

Kansas City Chiefs

Carson Wentz: With the Chiefs expected to rest Patrick Mahomes and several other starters in Week 18, Carson Wentz is expected to start against Denver. Wentz has completed two passes this season for 20 yards, and he has appeared in just 12 games since the start of the 2022 season. 

Denver Broncos

Marvin Mims Jr.: A second-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Mims had arguably the best game of his career in Week 17, catching eight passes for 103 yards and two scores. A speedster on the outside, Mims is an intriguing anytime touchdown scorer target because of his big-play ability. 

Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction and Pick

Earlier this season, these teams played a low-scoring affair in Kansas City that ended with the Chiefs winning on a blocked field goal attempt in the final seconds. If that game had gone the other way, KC would have something to play for while Denver would have already locked up a playoff spot heading into Week 18.

Pretty crazy. 

Instead, the Broncos desperately need this game.

While I think they will win, I don’t know if I trust Denver to cover the 10-point spread since its defense has been picked apart by Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow in back-to-back weeks. Carson Wentz isn’t on the same level, but he is a proven NFL quarterback who may be able to move the ball. 

The Chiefs have leaned on their defense a lot this season, ranking in the top 15 in the NFL in yards per play allowed and defensive EPA/Play. Denver is third in opponent yards per play and entered Week 17 with the No. 1 defense in terms of EPA/Play.

Don’t be shocked if this turns into a low-scoring game with Denver simply looking to survive and avoid an epic late-season collapse. 

Pick: UNDER 38.5 (-108)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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