Chiefs vs. Chargers Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 4 (Bet the UNDER)

Does this Chargers trend continue in Week 4?

Los Angeles Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh. / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

There’s a chance that we won’t see quarterback Justin Herbert in action on Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs after he aggravated his high ankle sprain in the Los Angeles Chargers’ loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3. 

That’s led to oddsmakers favoring the Chiefs by eight points on the road in Week 4 – a major line since Kansas City has not won a game by that many points yet in 2024. 

Patrick Mahomes and company have gone 8-2 against the Chargers with him as the starter, and they should add another win to the resume if Herbert sits. 

Let’s break down the odds, betting trends, key players to watch, and my best bet for this AFC West contest. 

Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Chiefs -8 (-112)
• Chargers +8 (-108)

Moneyline

• Chiefs: -425
• Chargers: +330

Total

• 39 (Over -112/Under -108)

Chiefs vs. Chargers How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 29
• Time: 4:25 p.m. EST
• Venue: SoFi Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Chiefs record: 3-0
• Chargers record: 2-1

Chiefs vs. Chargers Betting Trends

• The Chiefs are 2-1 against the spread this season.
• The Chargers are 2-1 against the spread this season.
• The OVER is 2-1 in the Chiefs’ three games this season.
• The UNDER is 3-0 in the Chargers’ three games this season.
• The Chargers are 1-4 without Justin Herbert since he was drafted.
• Patrick Mahomes is 8-2 straight up against the Chargers in his career.
• The Chargers are 1-0 ATS at home this season.
• The Chiefs are 1-0 ATS on the road this season. 

Chiefs vs. Chargers Injury Reports

Chiefs Injury Report

• Clyde Edwards-Helaire – out
• Isiah Pacheco – out
• Hollywood Brown – out

Chargers Injury Report

• Rashawn Slater – questionable
• Joey Bosa – questionable
• Justin Herbert – questionable
• Joe Alt – questionable
• Josh Palmer – questionable 
• Junior Colson – questionable

Chiefs vs. Chargers Key Players to Watch

Kansas City Chiefs

Rashee Rice: It’s been a great start to the 2024 season for Rice, who has 24 catches for 288 yards and two scores. The clear No. 1 target for Patrick Mahomes, Rice could be in line for another heavy-target day against a Chargers secondary that struggled against Justin Fields last week. 

Los Angeles Chargers

J.K. Dobbins: If Herbert misses this game, Dobbins could be in line for a massive role on the ground. The former second-round pick has two 100-yard games so far on the season, but he was limited to just 15 carries for 44 yards against the Steelers in Week 3. 

Chiefs vs. Chargers Prediction and Pick

With Herbert’s status up in the air – it feels like he’ll miss this game after aggravating his ankle in Week 3 – I don’t love a side in this matchup. 

Laying eight points with Kansas City on the road is asking a lot, and the Chargers simply can’t be trusted offensively with Taylor Heinicke under center.

That leads me to the UNDER, which has hit in all three of Los Angeles’ games this season. The Chargers have scored just 22, 26, and 10 points even with Herbert on the field, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see them in the teens – or less – in Week 4. 

Plus, Kansas City’s offense has yet to clear 27 points in a game this season, and the Chargers are an elite defensive team, allowing the third-fewest points in the NFL through three weeks. 

Pick: UNDER 39 (-108)

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