Chiefs vs. Steelers Final Score Prediction for Christmas Day in NFL Week 17 (Can Pittsburgh Cover?)

Can the Steelers improve upon their 5-2 against the spread record as underdogs?

Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is elite as an underdog in his coaching career. / Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

The Kansas City Chiefs can clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win on Christmas Day in Week 17 against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Kansas City is coming off a win over the Houston Texans on Saturday, and it has just one loss in the 2024 campaign heading into this matchup. Oddsmakers have set the Chiefs as road favorites against Mike Tomlin’s squad. 

The Steelers are still in first in the AFC North, but a loss to the Ravens on Saturday pulled them into a tie at 10-5 atop the division. Pittsburgh has lost two games in a row, and it has a tough matchup with Cincinnati in Week 18 left on the schedule.

If the Steelers lose out – there’s a good chance they’ll end up as a wild card team in the AFC.

Can Tomlin’s squad pull off the upset at home in Week 17? 

Using the latest odds and analysis, I’m attempting to predict the final score of this matchup, and in turn helping bettors pick a side or total to bet on as well. 

Chiefs vs. Steelers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Chiefs -2.5 (-120)
• Steelers +2.5 (+100)

Moneyline

• Chiefs: -148
• Steelers: +124

Total

• 43 (Over -110/Under -110)

The Chiefs are 3-2 against the spread as road favorites this season, but the Steelers are a perfect 2-0 against the spread as home underdogs. 

Since Mike Tomlin took over the Steelers in 2007, they have the best ATS record as underdogs in the NFL. 

Chiefs vs. Steelers Final Score Prediction

SI Betting’s NFL betting inside Iain MacMillan shared his pick for this game earlier this week in our betting preview, and he’s siding with the underdog – at least against the spread – in this matchup: 

The Chiefs will enter this game with some bad injury luck. Not only will the Steelers likely get George Pickens back for the first time in a few weeks, but they have some major injuries of their own they have to deal with including Chris Jones, Jawaan Taylor, and Jack Cochrane. That's going to be tough for Kansas City to deal with on the road in a short week.

The Chiefs may be 14-1, but their metrics don't back that record up. They are middle of the pack in most areas and have benefited from late-game heroics and favorable bounces. It's going to be hard to rely on those against a team as well-coached and disciplined as the Steelers.

I'm going to take the points with the Steelers on their home field on Christmas.

Pittsburgh failed to cover as a road underdog in Week 16, but it is still 5-2 against the spread as an underdog in the 2024 season. 

Still, with the Chiefs having a chance to clinch the AFC, I think they win this game on the road. 

Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 20, Steelers 19

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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