Christian McCaffrey Injury Odds: Offensive Player of the Year Movement Suggests He Could Miss More Time

McCaffrey isn't guaranteed to play Week 2.

Brian Giuffra | Sep 10, 2024

San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey. / David Gonzales-Imagn Images

Christian McCaffrey was a late scratch from the 49ers-Jets Monday Night Football game due to a calf injury, stunning the NFL world and bettors alike.

Based on the latest NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds movement, it might not be the only game he misses.

McCaffrey came into the season with +750 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook to defend the title he won last year. Those odds were tied with Tyreek Hill as the best in the league.

Now, after missing Week 1, McCaffrey's odds have dropped to +1300 at DraftKings. Hill is the leader in the odds at +550 followed by Saquon Barkley (+850) and CeeDee Lamb (+1000). Breece Hall and Justin Jefferson are just behind McCaffrey at +1400.

That odds movement represents a 4.7% drop in the implied probability of McCaffrey winning the award. Those +750 odds represented an 11.8% chance of him winning. The +1300 odds equates to a 7.1% chance.

Adam Schefter said on the MNF pregame show there's a "strong possibility" McCaffrey misses Week 2, and the odds back that up.

Last year, McCaffrey missed the 49ers' final game of the season for rest ahead of the playoffs and still won Offensive Player of the Year because he was so dominant the first 16 games. He was, however, the first player since Todd Gurley in 2017 to miss a game and win the award.

Simply put, to win Offensive Player of the Year you have to put up gaudy numbers. The primary way to do so is by playing almost every game. McCaffrey is already in danger of missing two.

With the way Jordan Mason ran the ball in Week 1 (over 140 rushing yards and a TD), the 49ers likely don't feel any pressure to rush McCaffrey back from his calf injury, which has already lingered longer than initially anticipated and could be reaggravated.

If McCaffrey does miss Week 2, or if he plays at a limited capacity, expect to see his odds drop even more.

More NFL Week 2 Betting Stories