Clemson vs. SMU Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for ACC Conference Championship Game

Reed Wallach | Dec 2, 2024

Nov 30, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings (7) in action during the game between the SMU Mustangs and the California Golden Bears at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Clemson and SMU will meet in the ACC Championship Game on Saturday night in Charlotte, North Carolina with the stakes incredibly high. 

Clemson will need to win this game to make the College Football Playoff after losing to South Carolina last week at home while SMU can avoid any thoughts of missing the postseason with a win as small favorites in what would be a fantastic start to the team’s tenure in the ACC. 

The Mustangs haven’t lost since going to Kevin Jennings at quarterback, winning every league game, can the team win its biggest of the season and lock up a CFP spot?

Clemson vs. SMU Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Clemson: +2.5 (-110)
• SMU: -2.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Clemson: +106
• SMU: -128

Total: 55.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Clemson vs. SMU How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, December 7th
• Game Time: 8:00 PM EST
• Venue: Bank of America Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Clemson Record: 9-3
• SMU Record: 11-1

Clemson vs. SMU Key Players to Watch

Clemson

Cade Klubnik: Klubnik nearly led the Tigers to a signature win against in-state foe South Carolina, passing for 280 yards and adding another 62 on the ground with a pair of rushing touchdowns, but a late interception cost Clemson the game. The junior quarterback has been smart with the football for most of the season, only throwing five interceptions, but has struggled against elite pass rushes all season long. SMU fits the bill of that, how will he handle the Mustangs' front seven?

SMU

Kevin Jennings: The move to Jennings has paid off big time for Rhett Lashlee and SMU, who went undefeated in ACC play this season. With Jennings in, SMU has scored at least 28 points in every game he has started, including 38 or more in six of nine games. 

Clemson vs. SMU Prediction and Pick

There’s a pretty clear difference between SMU and Clemson, and while there may be some gripes about the Mustangs’ lack of difficult opponents, the team has done little to cause much concern in a matchup against the Tigers, who have struggled against its toughest opponents. 

As noted last week in Reed ‘Em and Weep, Clemson has fallen off big time against elite pass rushes. 

“Against the three elite pass rushes the team has faced, Clemson has failed to crack more than five yards per play against Georgia, Louisville, and Pitt.” 

While Clemson was able to surpass six yards per play in the loss, the team struggled with negative plays far too often, posting a sub-par EPA/Play mark. Further, the team’s struggles on defense were showcased against an explosive South Carolina offense. 

The Tigers' rush defense is bottom 20 in the country in explosive rush rate, which is a big part of the SMU offense that has a capable runner in Jennings at quarterback as well as running back Brashard Smith, who is averaging six yards per carry and has at least a 19 yard run in all but one game this season. 

Meanwhile, I believe far too much pressure will fall on Klubnik’s arm as the SMU defensive line ranks top 15 in the country in pass rush grade, per Pro Football Focus. The ‘Stangs are allowing less than three yards per carry and are tops in EPA/Rush, a huge edge against a Clemson offense that is typically buoyed by running back Phil Mafah. However, Mafah is starting to slow down as the season goes on, averaging about three yards per carry over the last three games. 

SMU is far more versatile and has the edge over a Clemson team that has failed to live up to the hype when it faces similar competition. 

PICK: SMU -2.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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