Clemson vs. Texas Prediction, Odds and Key Players for College Football Playoff First Round

Reed Wallach | 3 Hours Ago

Dec 7, 2024; Charlotte, NC, USA; Clemson Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik (2) drops to throw during the second quarter against the Southern Methodist Mustangs in the 2024 ACC Championship game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images / Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Texas and Clemson face off in Austin in College Football Playoff first round action.

The Longhorns narrowly missed out on a first round BYE after losing in the SEC Championship to Georgia in overtime. The team will face off against ACC Champion Clemson, who will face its third SEC opponent of the season in hopes of better results this time around as the biggest underdog of the first round slate.

Can Clemson compete? Or is this setting up for an opportunity for Texas to remind the nation why this team is viewed as one of the National Championship favorites?

Here’s our betting preview.

Clemson vs. Texas Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

Clemson: +11.5 (-110)
Texas: -11.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Clemson: +340
Texas: -450

Total: 51.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Clemson vs. Texas How to Watch

Date: Saturday, December 21
Game Time: 4:00 PM EST
Venue: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
How to Watch (TV): TNT/MAX

Clemson vs. Texas Key Players to Watch

Clemson

Cade Klubnik: The Austin, Texas native returns home to face the Longhorns in the first round. Klubnik has enjoyed a strong statistical season, but the returns have come mainly against limited defenses that can’t contain his dual-threat capabilities. Overall, Klubnik has passed for 3,303 yards and added another 458 on the ground with 40 total touchdowns and only five interceptions. However, against two SEC opponents in South Carolina and Georgia he has no passing touchdowns and two interceptions.

Texas

Quinn Ewers: With a balky ankle, Ewers continues to show he is limited in the pocket, but will have a few weeks to rest ahead of the Clemson matchup. The Longhorns haven’t been as explosive as last year’s unit but this group is still flush with talented playmakers and an elite play caller in Steve Sarkisian. Despite battling injuries all season, Ewers has completed two-thirds of his passes for 2,665 yards and 25 passing touchdowns.

Clemson vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

There are questions for both sides in this postseason matchup, but far more concern lies in the big underdog Clemson.

The Tigers have scored a total of 17 points in two games against SEC defenses this season in Georgia and South Carolina. The Clemson offensive line has been a sore point all season as the team has struggled to hold up against any elite defensive line play, even in the ACC.

Against ACC and SEC foes, Clemson posted more than five yards per play just once (against South Carolina) in games against teams with a top 50 defensive line in terms of pass rush grade. Texas ranks third in that metric, according to Pro Football Focus, which I believe will weigh heavily on the Clemson offense.

While the Tigers may have some success passing on a Texas secondary that hasn’t been challenged that much this season as the Clemson passing game has come together, I believe that the team won’t sustain drives with too many negative plays.

It’s worth noting that Clemson’s lead running back Phil Mafah has been dealing with an injury that has limited the team’s overall effectiveness and becoming more of a pass-happy offense. To me, the team will become too predictable and forced to pass too often to keep up during the course of 60 minutes.

Meanwhile, the Texas offense has lacked the explosiveness we have become accustomed to, but the offense is still elite, ranking top 30 in yards per play and points per drive. While Ewers has struggled at times with his downfield passing, completing only 34% of his passes of more than 20 yards on 11% of his dropbacks, per PFF, I believe the Texas offense can find enough positive drives to keep Clemson at bay.

I also think Texas has more counters with a potent ground game and the possibility of integrating Arch Manning in the quarterback run game. I believe Texas missed an opportunity to use Manning in the SEC title game, and it played a part in the team losing that game. I believe Sarkisian can use him to give Clemson different looks in this one while the Tigers have very limited paths to success and sustaining drives.

Overall, I believe we see Texas play a conservative game and look to avoid mistakes to give Clemson short fields like it had against SMU early in the game to build a double digit lead despite averaging less than four yards per play in the game.

All roads lead to the under in this one.

PICK: UNDER 51.5