College Basketball National Championship Preview: What KenPom Says About Title Contenders

Jan 18, 2025; Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Cooper Flagg (2) dunks the ball against the Boston College Eagles during the first half at Conte Forum. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images
Jan 18, 2025; Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Cooper Flagg (2) dunks the ball against the Boston College Eagles during the first half at Conte Forum. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images / Eric Canha-Imagn Images

As conference play rages on, we continue to learn more about each college basketball team.

The competition has been fierce this season with plenty of worthy contenders building strong cases to be NCAA Tournament and National Championship contenders. There appears to be two clear top teams as of this writing, Duke and Auburn, but the NCAA Tournament doesn’t necessarily crown the best team.

However, there are some ways to position you, dear bettor, to find the team’s best suited to win all six (or seven if you are in the First Four) of the ‘Big Dance.’ 

Let me explain. 

KenPom, the advanced metric website that is gospel for college basketball bettors, has been compiling stats since 1999, which you can find here. 

Over the past two-plus decades, KenPom has become the market maker for college basketball; the website's metrics also help indicate overall team quality. There is the team’s overall adjusted efficiency metric as well as one for offense and defense (among others) that is a catch-all metric for how to rate teams.

Dating back to 2002, all but two teams have been inside KenPom's adjusted offensive and defensive metrics top 20. The teams that win it all are not only elite but are balanced and able to win in different ways more times than not.

The two teams that didn’t are 2014 Connecticut, paced by a sensational run from Shabazz Napier, and 2021 Baylor, who had a mid-season blip that weighed down the team’s overall rating. 

We have plenty of time before the bracket is revealed, but if you are starting to ramp up your Futures portfolio, this is a great place to start and track as we continue to get more data on each team. 

Below, you will find three different segments I have created for teams. First, the teams that are inside the 20-20 threshold as of Monday, January 27th, followed by teams that are just outside of it with top 40 metrics on each side of the ball. After that, I’ll explain some of the lopsided teams that may make for high-variance outcomes in an NCAA Tournament setting.

Remember, this is an ever-changing list, don't get married to what you've seen too much, and be prepared to pivot as more data comes in. As the season continues, the numbers do become more sticky as teams are more static and entrenched in its season-long data. With that in mind, this article will be updated weekly to reflect the past seven days of results.

Let's set the table for the rest of the college basketball season with a look at my three filters.

2025 National Championship Favorites

Team

Record

KenPom Rank

Bracket Matrix Projected Seed

KenPom AdjO

KenPom AdjD

Natty Odds

Duke

17-2

1

1

6

3

430

Auburn

18-1

2

1

1

11

430

Houston

16-3

3

4

11

2

900

Iowa State

17-2

4

1

10

6

900

Florida

18-2

5

2

2

15

1700

Last week, Illinois and Arizona were part of this group, but have since slipped out, leaving these six teams as the teams that would track as National Championship-worthy teams at this point in the season.

Over the last week, the biggest news is that Johni Broome returned from an ankle injury for Auburn. The Tigers big man and Wooden Award candidate buoyed the SEC leaders to a 53-51 win at home on Saturday night against Tennessee, scoring 16 points to go with 13 rebounds and four blocks.

The Auburn defense had slipped without Broome but soared near the top 10 on the heels of the dominant effort against Tennessee.

However, the team appears to still be a bit behind Duke when assessing title equity. While the two teams share the shortest odds on the board, Cooper Flagg and co. reaffirmed its standing as the best team in the country over the weekend, suffocating Wake Forest en route to a 63-56 road win.

2025 NCAA Tournament Dark Horse Contenders

Team

Record

KenPom Rank

Bracket Matrix Projected Seed

KenPom AdjO

KenPom AdjD

Natty Odds

Purdue

16-2

8

3

8

22

4500

Illinois

14-6

10

4

25

12

3500

Michigan

14-5

18

5

15

34

5500

Michigan State

17-2

15

2

22

18

4000

Arizona

13-6

17

6

16

26

4500

Tennessee

17-3

6

2

34

1

1500

Texas Tech

15-4

11

7

12

27

3500

Marquette

17-3

12

2

26

13

3000

Maryland

16-5

21

9

20

24

10000

St. Mary's

18-3

24

10

30

28

15000

Texas A&M

15-5

16

4

39

9

5500

Kansas

14-5

7

3

31

4

2500

Mississippi State

16-4

23

4

18

35

5500

These are the teams on the doorstep of fitting the historical criteria of a National Champion, top 40 on both sides of the ball.

Illinois slides down into this group this week as the team tries to navigate the loss of impact big man Tomislav Ivisic. The 7'1" rim protector was missed dearly in the team's blowout home loss against Maryland due to an illness. For now, the Fighting Illini appear to be more of a fringe contender when not at full capacity.

Speaking of Maryland, the Terps continue to put together quality results, finishing the Midwest road trip with a thrilling win at Indiana in the final seconds. The Terps have a formidable front line with a two-big lineup of freshman sensation Derik Queen (15 points and eight rebounds) as well as senior Julian Reese (13 points, nine rebounds).

The Big Ten is full of quality clubs that should make for plenty of high-level games down the stretch of the season with the likes of Purdue, Michigan, and Michigan State part of this group of title hopefuls. Can the Big Ten use the tests of conference play to prepare for a March Madness run? There are plenty of teams building resumes that look the part so far.

2025 NCAA Tournament Upset Candidates

Team

Record

KenPom Rank

Bracket Matrix Projected Seed

KenPom AdjO

KenPom AdjD

Natty Odds

Kentucky

14-5

22

3

2

84

3000

Alabama

17-3

9

1

3

43

1300

Gonzaga

15-6

13

8

4

58

3500

UConn

14-6

36

7

9

132

5500

Villanova

12-9

54

N/A

13

180

25000

Wisconsin

16-4

14

5

7

50

7500

Baylor

13-6

26

8

14

61

7500

BYU

13-6

31

10

17

63

20000

Pittsburgh

16-4

34

10

19

71

20000

Cincinnati

12-7

53

N/A

137

14

30000

St. John's

17-3

19

6

55

5

5000

UC-Irvine

18-3

57

11

191

7

50000

San Diego State

13-5

37

10

112

8

25000

UCLA

14-6

33

8

66

16

15000

Georgia

14-6

41

9

79

20

15000

West Virginia

13-6

38

6

111

19

20000

VCU

16-4

35

12

74

17

25000

Ole Miss

15-5

20

5

44

10

10000

There are plenty of lopsided teams on this list, over reliant on one side of the ball.

These teams are fickle come NCAA Tournament time as matchups can lead to incredibly volatile outcomes. Take Alabama for example, who appears on this list with a similar analytic profile to last year's Final Four team.

The Crimson Tide offense is explosive, able to score 100 on a given night, but if the team runs into an elite defense and has a cold shooting night, it can't rely on its defense to save the day. Last season, the team ran hot in the postseason to the semifinal game, but if the team can't round into form on defense, it may be ripe for an early exit.

These are teams that struggle on one side of the floor, and while Alabama has its flaws, Kentucky and UConn appear to be worse versions of that idea.

Trendy names for sure, both the Wildcats and Huskies appear primed for disappointing March Madness runs with their inability to get stops. Look at last Saturday as an indicator, as the team lost closely lined games on the road to inferior opponents due to poor defense.

At the same time, these can be teams that are underpriced in a one-off market. I typically like to circle the mid-major teams that may be double-digit seeds come March as ones that can be a matchup nightmare for a "better" team.

The betting market has wised up to this idea as these are typically trendy teams that can hang their hat on one side of the ball, like the ones listed above, but it's good to note as possible teams that are so volatile that a deep run is also possible if the offense spikes for a few games.


Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.


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Reed Wallach
REED WALLACH

Reed is a Senior Editor at SI Betting. He grew up in New Jersey and graduated from the University of Wisconsin. His passion lies with the Brooklyn Nets, but is always hunting for an edge.