College Football Against the Spread Picks for Every Top 25 Team in Week 1

Reed Wallach | Aug 27, 2024

Nov 18, 2023; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar (15) hands off to running back Kaytron Allen (13) during the first half against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports / Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

The first full slate of football is finally here, and we have a monster slate of games including ranked-on-ranked matchups.

While some ranked teams will face FCS foes, I'm going to make a pick for each FBS vs. FBS matchup with a handful of the marquee matchups throughout Week 1 on the card, including Penn State's road trip to West Virginia and Texas A&M playing host to Notre Dame.

Here's a pick for each game this weekend that features a ranked team playing a fellow FBS team.

Year to Date: (0-0-0)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at 4:45 PM EST on Tuesday, August 27th

Clemson vs. Georgia (in Atlanta) Prediction and Pick

Pick: Georgia (-13.5)

As noted from our betting preview, Georgia has too much firepower for Clemson to handle on Saturday in the opener.

The Tigers offensive line is going to struggle to contain the Bulldogs and move the ball efficiently. Clemson ranked 94th in tackles for loss allowed and now face a vaunted defensive line that are 12th in yards per play. 

Georgia showcased an ability to test even the best defenses, scoring 27 or more in all but two games last season. Beck and co. led an incredibly potent offensive attack that was fifth in EPA/Play and scored nearly four points per drive.

Clemson may make strides on the offensive side of the ball, but this is a tough task in a semi-neutral game in Atlanta against arguably the best defense in the country. 

The Bulldogs haven’t lost a regular season game since 2020, and I think the team can dominate on Saturday. 

Penn State vs. West Virginia Prediction and Pick

Pick: Penn State (-8.5)

Penn State infamously punched in a late touchdown to secure a Week 1 cover against West Virginia as 20.5-point favorites. After the Mountaineers went on to have a strong 2023, the team has received a sizeable upgrade to be inside of double digits on Saturday in the opening game. 

However, I’ll push back against this notion. 

In the meeting last season, Penn State outgained West Virginia by 170 yards and racked up six tackles for loss. The Nittany Lions will be transitioning to two new coordinators on each side of the ball, but the pieces are still in place to shut down the WVU offense. 

Give me the Nittany Lions to win with relative ease.

Akron vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Ohio State -48.5

Colorado State vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

Pick: Colorado State +32

Miami (Florida) vs. Florida Prediction and Pick

Pick: Florida +2.5

Western Kentucky vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick

Pick: Alabama -31.5

Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Pick

Pick: Texas A&M -3

After a summer of line movement that saw the Aggies go from a slight home underdog to a field goal favorite, the line is bordering on correct as Texas A&M has a decisive edge on the visiting Irish. 

The Fighting Irish were going through a transition on the offensive line, replacing No. 5 overall pick Joe Alt, and his backup, Charles Jagusah, suffered a season-ending injury in fall camp. 

As noted in our betting preview, ND was already up against it when facing an elite defensive line under new head coach Mike Elko, and will struggle to hold up on the road. 

However, offseason news has shifted this market. After opening as a small road favorite in College Station, the Fighting Irish are now field goal underdogs on the road due to injuries along the offensive line to Notre Dame, who need to replace three starters, including the No. 5 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft Joe Alt. Alt’s replacement, Charles Jagusah suffered a torn pectoral muscle that will cost him the season. Against a top-flight defensive line that ranked fifth in tackles for loss, third in line yards, and fourth in EPA/Rush, Notre Dame’s new-look offense may be up against it with injuries in the trenches. 

Meanwhile, Texas A&M comes in far more complete on offense in Klein’s offensive system that thrived at Kansas State. Given the current makeup of each team, I believe the Aggies come in with an edge, and Klein’s ability to scheme up run plays can open up the passing game later on. 

The low total checks with the style of game I expect, a high-level chess match that may lack explosive plays early. With the Fighting Irish struggling to hold up offensively with a patchwork offensive line, I expect we see the Aggies push ahead and lean on the ground game while avoiding giving an elite Notre Defense (top 10 in EPA/Play in its own right last season) any sort of openings. 

Fresno State vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

Pick: Fresno State +21.5 

New Mexico vs. Arizona Prediction and Pick

Pick: Arizona -31.5

While New Mexico's offense looked further along than expectations in Week 0, the team was lucky to be ahead in its Week 0 matchup against Montana State, allowing the Bobcats to gain more than eight yards per play. Of course, the Lobos squandered a 17-point fourth-quarter lead and lost outright as the team's two defensive touchdowns weren't able to offset its leaky defense.

Now, on the road against a talented Arizona team, I believe the Wildcats can name its number and do enough to get margin in this one.

USC vs. LSU (in Las Vegas) Prediction and Pick

Pick: USC +4.5

Boston College vs. Florida State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Florida State -15.5

Sure, Florida State laid an egg in its opener against Georgia Tech in Dublin, Ireland, but this number has shifted about a touchdown against the Seminoles as the team returns home to face Boston College.

BC is transitioning schemes with a new coach but does have a dynamic quarterback in Thomas Castellanos who can give opposing defenses fits. However, I'm not sold that the team can slow down Florida State's presumed to be elite defensive line.

Yes, the team struggled against Georgia Tech, but that's a high-level ACC offense, while Boston College was a bit one-dimensional around the run game, ranking 82nd in EPA/Play overall.

I'm counting on a bounce back effort form the Seminoles at home.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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