College Football Best Bets for Week 2: How to Bet Michigan vs. Texas, Illinois vs. Kansas

Reed Wallach | Sep 6, 2024

Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) snaps the ball during the game against Colorado State at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin Saturday, Aug. 31, 2024. / Aaron E. Martinez/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK

We are right into the swing of things when it comes to college football with a host of high leverage games on Saturday.

The biggest game is in the early window with Texas traveling to face the defending National Champions Michigan in an early measuring stick matchup for the Longhorns and Wolverines. However, instead of taking the side in a game I'm targeting a specific total.

Keep reading to get my best bet on Texas vs. Michigan as well as a pair of underrated games on Saturday night, Kansas vs. Illinois and Mississippi State vs. Arizona State.

Best Bets for College Football Week 2

• Texas vs. Michigan 1st Half UNDER 20.5
• Illinois (+5) vs. Kansas
• Mississippi State vs. Arizona State OVER 58.5

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Texas vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

The market has shifted away from the Wolverines as many are questioning the drop-off across the board on offense. The unit kept a vanilla scheme, but the team averaged only five yards per play and had a bottom-fifth percentile explosive play rate relative to every game last season. 

The Longhorns have the explosiveness to push this game out of reach for Michigan’s offense, but the Wolverines' defense remains a top-five unit in college football. Can Michigan play the field position battle and take advantage of a Texas team that has to replace two of the best defensive linemen in the country in All-American T’Vondre Sweat and first-round pick Byron Murphy II? 

Michigan will try to slow this game to a crawl and pound the rock, but I’m not sure if that will work for a full 60 minutes if the team can’t make the Longhorns respect the passing game. 

On the other side, is Texas set for a big offensive showing on the road while transitioning in several new offensive pieces as well as question marks at running back? I believe we see a cautious approach from Sarkisian and co. and avoid any field-flipping mistakes. 

It’s worth noting that with Michigan’s new defensive coordinator Wink Martindale taking over, he will look to bring pressure on Quinn Ewers early and often. Ewers struggled when under pressure last season, completing only 51% of passes with only one big time throw, taking a sack on nearly a quarter of dropbacks. 

With Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, Michigan should be able to get to Ewers and it may take some time for the Longhorns offense to grow into this one.

FIeld position will be key, and to me this seems like the team that gets to 20 points wins. 

To start, I’m going to bank on limited scoring chances and conservative play calling, and I’ll target the first half under. 

PICK: 1H Under 20.5

Illinois vs. Kansas Prediction and Pick

The Jayhawks won 34-23 while racking up 539 yards to the Fighting Illini’s 341 yards, but I’m going to back the resurgent home underdog in this one. 

Illinois’ offense should be far improved this season with another year of Luke Altmyer under center and the emergence of Feagin as the lead running back. Feagin is a gigantic running back who can overwhelm an undersized Kansas defensive line that lacks the size to close up rushing lanes. The Jayhawks are counting on FCS transfers to fill the void of losing its best pass rusher from a year ago in Austin Booker. 

It also helps that Illinois' offense seems more improved in the passing game as well with the emergence of Pat Byrant and Ole Miss transfer Zakhari Franklin.

Further, Illinois’ defense should be far improved relative to last season after replacing now Purdue head coach Ryan Walters as defensive coordinator as well as two pros in the secondary, including top-five pick Devin Witherspoon. 

The Illini should be better in the secondary and limit the explosiveness from Kansas’ passing game. 

I'm willing to pay to see Daniels show his full health that featured him as a dynamic dual-threat weapon in the unique KU offense, which is replacing Andy Kotelnecki as offensive coordinator. 

This is a big number to trust the Jayhawks, who enter with a few more questions than the home underdog. 

PICK: Illinois +5

Mississippi State vs. Arizona State Prediction and Pick

I think this game is ripe for a shootout. 

In Week 1, Mississippi State ran over 2.8 plays per minute, among the fastest in the country. This was expected under Lebby, and it makes me bullish that the team will continue to do so moving forward, even if the team runs into a better defense like Arizona State. 

The Sun Devils defense showed promise last season and shut down a one-dimensional Wyoming offense in Week 1, but I believe that the Bulldogs’ up-tempo attack can create scoring chances. 

Meanwhile, the Sun Devils offense, which lost 51 starts on the offensive line last season to the preseason projected depth chart, looked the part under a sharp offensive mind like Dillingham. While the team’s pace was weighed down, a lot of that had to do with the game script and scoreboard. Overall, Arizona State averaged more than seven yards per play. 

I believe ASU will be a willing participant in an up-tempo affair with its revitalized offense with Leavitt under center. The team ranked 60th last season in seconds per play despite being gashed by injuries and needing to slow games down to keep them competitive, but Dillingham’s preference is to play fast. 

Both coaches are offensive-minded and want to go fast. I’ll bank on points on Saturday night.

PICK: OVER 58.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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