College Football Picks Against the Spread for Every Conference Championship Game

Reed Wallach | 13 Hours Ago

Nov 30, 2024; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) fakes a pass as he runs into the end zone for a touchdown during the first half against the Washington Huskies at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images / Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

It’s Conference Championship Week!

While there isn’t a full serving of games anymore, there are nine pivotal games that will determine respective league winners. From the biggest games on the card, like the SEC Championship Game featuring a rematch between Texas and Georgia, to essentially a College Football Playoff Game between Boise State and UNLV in the Mountain West title game, we have picks for every game against the spread. 

Get your fix for this weekend’s games below. 

Season Record: 114-116-1

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Best Picks Against the Spread for Every Top 25 Game

AAC Championship Game Prediction and Pick

Tulane vs. Army 

Pick: Tulane -6

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The only team that Army has faced that is inside the top 50 nationally in EPA/Play is Notre Dame, who blasted the troops 49-14. 

Meanwhile, Tulane has proven to be an elite Group of Five team but had its College Football Playoff bubble burst against Memphis last week, costing the Green Wave a chance at hosting the AAC title game. 

However, head coach Jon Sumrall has dominated triple option teams dating back to his time at Troy, when he shut down Jeff Monken’s team the past two seasons by a combined score of 29-9. Further, Tulane beat Navy on the road 35-0. 

I’ll lay it with the favorite.

Conference USA Championship Game Prediction and Pick

Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State

Pick: Western Kentucky +4.5

Mountain West Championship Game Prediction and Pick

UNLV vs. Boise State 

Pick: Boise State -4

Big 12 Championship Game Prediction and Pick

Iowa State vs. Arizona State

Pick: Arizona State -2.5

This is simply a poor matchup for Iowa State, who is outside the top 100 in yards per carry allowed and outside the top 120 in tackling grade, per Pro Football Focus. 

The team has been on a month-long slide that looks to have been stopped with two straight wins against Utah and Kansas State, but the box score continues to show the team is getting more fortunate than anything. 

The Sun Devils will be without star wide receiver Jordyn Tyson for this game, but I can’t look past the current form of this ASU team that has a massive edge with running back Cam Skattebo to keep the team on schedule. 

Iowa State’s offense is reliant on big plays, bottom third nationally in success rate, which is ultimately going to be the difference as Arizona State is the far more reliable offense, top 25 in success rate and top half of the country on defense in terms of limiting explosive plays. 

MAC Championship Game Prediction and Pick

Ohio vs. Miami (Ohio)

Pick: Miami (Ohio) -2.5

For the RedHawks, the team is trying to become the first team in more than a decade to go back-to-back in the MAC, and I believe the team has proven to be the class of the MAC and will cover as small favorites against the surprising entrant to the title game, Ohio. 

The RedHawks disposed of the Bobcats in the first meeting in Oxford, 30-20 as the team’s elite defense shut down Parker Navarro and the team’s passing game as head coach Tim Albin benched the quarterback in the second half. 

Ohio is based around its sturdy run game, top 20 in yards per carry, and while Navarro is timely with his passes, this is still a unit outside the top 90 in EPA/Pass. This was apparent in the first meeting as Miami limited Ohio to 280 total yards. 

Further, the sturdy Bobcats defense struggled to make much progress against the RedHawks offense, failing to register a tackle for loss and allowing Brett Gabbert to pick apart the Ohio secondary. 

With the emergence of Keyon Mozee in the run game, who ran for 113 yards in the win against Ohio, I like Miami to win its second straight MAC title.

SEC Championship Game Prediction and Pick

Georgia vs. Texas 

Pick: Texas -2.5

Sun Belt Championship Game Prediction and Pick

Marshall vs. Louisiana 

Pick: Marshall +5.5

Despite back-to-back covers with backup quarterback Chandler Fields, further review shows that the team is getting away with inflated box scores. 

Louisiana beat Troy by 21 points despite only out-gaining the Trojans by 37 yards and beat Lousiana-Monroe by 14 courtesy of a late touchdown despite out-gaining the Warhawks by 62 yards. 

While Marshall has had some box score oddities as well, the team does have an edge with its ability to deploy quarterback Braylon Braxton in the run game. The Thundering Herd are an elite rushing offense that should be able to keep up with the Ragin’ Cajun’s that has the worst defense in terms of EPA/Rush in the country. 

ACC Championship Game Prediction and Pick

Clemson vs. SMU

Pick: SMU -2.5

Big Ten Championship Game Prediction and Pick

Penn State vs. Oregon 

Pick: Oregon -3.5

Penn State still lacks a truly signature win on the season, and I believe that its lack of competition shows in the Big Ten Championship Game. 

Oregon has proven it can move the ball through the air and on the ground against all different kinds of competition, and I envision the quick passing game with Dillon Gabriel can offset the vaunted Penn State pass rush. 

Meanwhile, I believe the Nittany Lions lack of a big play weapon at wide receiver alleviates some of the concern for Oregon’s defense that hasn’t allowed more than 21 points since the Ohio State game on October 12th. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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