College Football Picks Against the Spread for Every Top 25 Game in Week 6

Reed Wallach | 2 Hours Ago

Sep 28, 2024; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes tight end Gee Scott Jr. (88) celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown in the first half at Spartan Stadium on Saturday. / Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Another week of marquee matchups in college football are here and we are here to guide you through the biggest games on the Week 6 card.

Ohio State continues to build up its resume as a National Championship contender, and welcome Iowa in its first point spread of inside three touchdowns, can the Buckeyes continue to roll past opponents with a big matchup against Oregon ahead?

Here's our picks for every Top 25 game this weekend against the point spread.

Season Record: 34-45-1

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Best Picks Against The Spread For Top 25 Games in College Football Week 6

Michigan State vs. Oregon Prediction and Pick

Pick: Michigan State +24.5

After facing Ohio State on the road, Michigan State is out west to face Oregon on a short week, as hard of a turnaround you can ask for in college football. 

The Spartans offensive line has dealt with injuries all season and it won’t get any easier against Oregon’s vaunted pass rush that is 15th in PFF’s grading system. The Ducks should be able to feast on Michigan State’s patchwork OL and get to Chiles, which ranks 128th in pass blocking grade. 

Oregon, meanwhile, has been able to rack up points, but the drives have been methodical. Further, Michigan State has done a great job at getting to the quarterback, ranking 12th in the country in sacks with 15 through five games and ranking 29th in yards per carry allowed. 

With Oregon lacking an explosive play element, I think this game can be a bit more defensive minded than some anticipated. 

Syracuse vs. UNLV Prediction and Pick

Pick: Syracuse +6.5

UCLA vs. Penn State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Penn State -28

UCLA has covered two big point spreads in a row against heavyweights like LSU and Oregon, but the diminishing returns are starting to appear for the Bruins, who are making another cross country flight to face Penn State. 

The Nittany Lions likely should’ve beat Illinois by far more than the 21-7 scoreline would say. The team achieved a 58% success rate, 98th percentile when compared to games last season according to Gameonpaper, and I expect the team to find more explosives than its second percentile rate in the game. 

UCLA has struggled to get offenses off the field, dead last in third down conversion percentage allowed and are allowing over three points per drive. 

Penn State has a big game against USC on deck, but the team should be able to win by more than four scores. 

Missouri vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Pick

Pick: Missouri +2

SMU vs. Louisville Prediction and Pick

Pick: SMU  +7

Iowa vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Ohio State -19.5

I struggle to see Iowa moving the ball effectively to create scoring chances against Ohio State on the road. 

The Hawkeyes have an elite ground game this season, but are a one-dimensional outfit. The team isn’t going to be able to get to third and manageable against a Buckeyes defense that is second in early down EPA/Play this season. 

The Hawkeyes will be forced to throw, which will likely fail to lead to results with the team 98th in EPA/Pass and 127th in explosive pass rate. 

Iowa’s defense is among the best in the country, but the Buckeyes are in a different class and should be able to create explosives and pounce on strong field position against the Hawkeyes to win a low scoring game by margin. 

The Buckeyes may look to get out of this game quickly with an eye to the big game against Oregon next week, but the team is simply too explosive to keep out of the end zone and push this game out of reach. 

Auburn vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick

Pick: Auburn +24.5

Auburn has been on the wrong end of three losses of this season that the team could’ve won each of. The team has had a post game win expectancy of 19.3%, 93.3% and 75.3% in its three losses. 

Of course, heading to Georgia to face the Bulldogs off a loss is never appetizing to bet against, but Kirby Smart’s teams haven’t been so great in this situation. 

Georgia is 8-15 against the spread since 2017 (Smart’s second season) when laying more than three touchdowns. 

Auburn is better than its record states, top 10 in yards per play this season. If the unit can avoid some back-breaking turnovers, this game will be competitive for much of the 60 minutes

Ole Miss vs. South Carolina Prediction and Pick

Pick: South Carolina +9.5

Indiana vs. Northwestern Prediction and Pick

Pick: Indiana -13.5

Alabama vs. Vanderbilt Prediction and Pick

Pick; Vanderbilt +23.5

Clemson vs. Florida State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Clemson -14.5

Utah State vs. Boise State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Boise State -26.5

I’m not trying to find the bottom with Utah State, who has lost by an average margin of 27 points to start the season against FBS competition. 

The offense is poor for the Aggies, 83rd in EPA/Play and outside the top 100 in points pe drive, and the defense is even worse. The unit is allowing more than three points per drive, 125th in the country and is 120th in EPA/Play. 

With the Broncos offense scoring at least 35 points in every game so far this season, paced by historic running back Ashton Jeanty, I see little reason to believe in Utah State on the road. 

Ashton Jeanty is on pace to run for 3,380 yards + 52 TDs while averaging 10.3 per carry.

His 588 rushing yards after contact alone would put him 6th in the country in rushing + his 43 forced missed tackles leads the country.

All-time season. Heisman.pic.twitter.com/NgxQx7iPpJ

— Bobby Football (@Rob__Paul) September 29, 2024

Jeanty is in the Heisman conversation, which should only keep his workload up late into this game to ensure the Broncos cover the near four touchdown point spread. 

Tennessee vs. Arkansas Prediction and Pick

Pick: Tennessee -13.5

Michigan vs. Washington Prediction and Pick

Pick: Washington -2.5

USC vs. Minnesota Prediction and Pick

Pick: Minnesota +8.5

Baylor vs. Iowa State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Baylor +12.5

Baylor seems to be circling the drain in the Dave Aranda era, but the team may have found something with Sawyer Robertson as the team has put together back-to-back positive EPA/Dropback marks against Big 12 competition. 

The defenses of BYU and Colorado pale in comparison to the likes of Iowa State on the road, but I do believe that the Bears can keep this game competitive. 

This will be the best offense that Iowa State has seen this season as Baylor is the only team in the top half of the country in terms of EPA/Dropback. This is a big point spread for Iowa State to cover against a Baylor defense that has held up on defense, ranking 22nd in yards per play. 

I’ll grab the points with the Bears. 

Miami (Florida) vs. Cal Prediction and Pick

Pick: Miami (Florida): -10

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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