College Football Picks Against the Spread for Every Top 25 Game in Week 10

Reed Wallach | 2 Hours Ago

Oct 19, 2024; Clemson, South Carolina, USA; Clemson Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik (2) follows offensive lineman Blake Miller (78) block down field against the Virginia Cavaliers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Alexander Hicks-Imagn Images / Alexander Hicks-Imagn Images

Clemson resumes its quest for a College Football Playoff, one of the marquee games on a loaded Week 10 card.

The Tigers will host Louisville, who will attempt to spoil the host's unblemished ACC record in Death Valley on Saturday night. That's one of the many headline matchups on Saturday's slate, let's get started with picks against the spread for every Top 25 matchup.

Season Record: 65-79-1

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

College Football Picks Against the Spread for Every Top 25 Game

San Diego State vs. Boise State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Boise State (-23.5)

While San Diego State has much improved on offense under first-year head coach Sean Lewis and quarterback Danny O’Neil, I’m not sure the Aztecs offense can keep the Boise State defense out of the backfield.

The Broncos are tops in the country in sacks this season, and the Aztecs defense is below the national average in sacks allowed (118th in tackles for loss overall). The team will be in obvious passing situations too often where Boise State can drop defenders back in coverage and create turnover-worthy plays for O’Neil.

While the Broncos may look to steal some rest for Ashton Jeanty, the team has too much firepower to overwhelm SDSU at home.

Duke vs. Miami (Florida) Prediction and Pick

Pick: Miami (Florida) (-21)

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Prediction and Pick

Pick: Arkansas (+7.5)

Air Force vs. Army Prediction and Pick

Pick: Army (-22.5)

Minnesota vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick

Pick: Illinois (+3)

Ohio State vs. Penn State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Ohio State (-3.5)

Texas Tech vs. Iowa State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Iowa State (-14.5)

Oregon vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

Pick: Oregon (-15.5)

Kansas State vs. Houston Prediction and Pick

Pick: Houston (+13.5)

Willie Fritz has thrived in his career as an underdog, 10-6 against the spread as an underdog, and I can see the Cougars competing quite a bit in this matchup against Kansas State, who continues to struggle to cover as a favorite this season.

Despite being 7-1 straight up this season, the Wildcats haven’t been the best team to back, going 3-4 against the spread as a favorite and 1-3 away from home.

Against a stingy Houston defense that grades out as a top 40 unit in points per drive allowed and 33rd in success rate allowed, I believe that Avery Johnson can struggle to engineer a blowout effort. The sophomore quarterback continues to underwhelm as a passer, making only eight big-time throws to eight turnover-worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus.

Indiana vs. Michigan State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Michigan State (+7.5)

Florida vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick

Pick: Florida (+16.5)

While Florida is likely outmatched for this one, I’ll take the points as DJ Lagway has shown an ability to make explosive plays often in this Gators offense.

Further, the Bulldogs haven’t been interested in running it up on opponents this season, yet to cover a spread as a favorite since Week 1. Meanwhile, the Gators' offense can stretch the field vertically with the big-play-hunting Lagway, who is averaging 12 yards per dropback this season.

Georgia has been had on deep passes this season from the likes of Alabama and Mississippi State, grading out 42nd in coverage, per PFF, and 48th in explosive pass defense

Texas A&M vs. South Carolina Prediction and Pick

Pick: Texas A&M (-2.5)

Louisville vs. Clemson Prediction and Pick

Pick: Clemson (-10.5)

The Tigers offense hasn’t been slowed down since Week 1, and I don’t expect it to happen in Week 10.

Clemson is averaging north of 48 points per game in the last six games, and Louisville’s defense is on fumes, playing its seventh straight game and starting to show cracks in the big play department. The Cardinals are outside the top 100 in both explosive pass and run rate this season, which can allow the Tigers to move the ball with ease on offense.

While Louisville has been competitive this season, I believe this matchup is the end of a tough stretch of football and that the team won’t have the energy to keep up with an explosive Clemson offense that is top in EPA/Play and averaging nearly four points per drive.

Kentucky vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick

Pick: Tennessee (-16.5)

Pittsburgh vs. SMU Prediction and Pick

Pick: Pittsburgh (+7.5)