College Football Picks Against the Spread for Every Top 25 Game in Week 11

Reed Wallach | Nov 6, 2024

Nov 2, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward (1) looks for a passing option against the Duke Blue Devils during the first quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The College Football Playoff picture is always changing with every passing week, and Saturday’s ranked slate is no different in Week 11. 

With marquee matchups all day, there will be more twists and turns to this season. Looking to get in on the betting action on the likes of Miami vs. Georgia Tech and Michigan vs. Indiana? We have picks against the spread for every ranked matchup on the card. 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook 

Season Record: 70-89-1

College Football Picks Against the Spread for Every Top 25 Game in Week 11

Purdue vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Ohio State (-37.5)

Miami (Florida) vs. Georgia Tech Prediction and Pick

Pick: Georgia Tech (+11.5)

As stated above, King’s status is pivotal, and we won’t get much clarity until close to kickoff as the early indication is that the Georgia Tech quarterback will be a game-time decision ahead of Saturday with his shoulder injury. 

If King doesn’t go, the Georgia Tech offense will lose potency in the passing game against a vulnerable Miami secondary that is outside the top 100 in explosive pass defense this season.

The strength of the Miami defense is along the line, ranking 23rd in line yards and 30th in yards per carry allowed, but if Georgia Tech is able to deploy the likes of Eric Singleton and Malik Rutherford with a viable passing game, that can open up rushing lanes for Jamal Haynes.

On the other side, Georgia Tech has been a sturdy defense all season, 45th in EPA/Play, but far stronger against the run (second in defensive line yards) than the pass, which can be an issue against the Miami passing game that has the Heisman Trophy front runner in Ward under center. 

However, I can’t look past the excellence of Yellow Jackets head coach Brent Key as an underdog. Key is 12-6 against the spread as an underdog in the two-plus years at Georgia Tech with nine outright upsets. 

I’ll take the points with the Yellow Jackets. 

Florida vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

Pick: Texas (-21.5)

Georgia vs. Ole Miss Prediction and Pick

Pick: Georgia (-2.5)

Michigan vs. Indiana Prediction and Pick

Pick: Indiana (-13.5)

There is a gap between Indiana and Michigan, that is for certain, but what is the gap? 

Oddsmakers have been unable to grasp the dominance of Indiana all season, undefeated against the spread (depending on the number you bet), while Michigan has failed to live up to its rating, just 2-7 against the number. 

The Wolverines defense will certainly be the best unit that Indiana has faced to date, but the offense continues to lack the ability to hold up week-over-week. Michigan has scored more than 24 points just once in Big Ten play this season and is cycling back to the third quarterback of the season in Warren. 

Indiana has benefitted from an easy schedule, but the team’s ability to make plays in the backfield is notable against a Michigan defense that has no explosiveness on offense. Indiana is top five in tackles for loss this season and yards per play allowed. Meanwhile, Michigan is 116th in EPA/Pass and will be behind the sticks often in this one. 

This game can snowball from Michigan quickly. The team’s inability to generate consistent plays will be paramount against an Indiana team that has shown a willingness to run it up in the second half. 

It’s Hoosiers or nothing in this one. 

Iowa State vs. Kansas Prediction and Pick

Pick: Kansas (+3)

Army vs. North Texas Prediction and Pick

Pick: North Texas (+6)

Clemson vs. Virginia Tech Prediction and Pick

Pick: Virginia Tech (+6.5)

Colorado vs. Texas Tech Prediction and Pick

Pick: Texas Tech (+3.5)

South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt Prediction and Pick

Pick: Vanderbilt (+3.5)

Maryland vs. Oregon Prediction and Pick

Pick: Oregon (-25)

Mississippi State vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mississippi State (+23.5)

Tennessee has a matchup with Georgia in Athens next week, and the Vols have failed to live up to oddsmakers expectations throughout SEC play, failing to cover as a double digit favorite in all three instances. 

The Vols offense started to come together against Kentucky last week, but I can’t trust this team to blowout a team that is showing that it can move the ball as the season goes on. Freshman Michael Van Buren Jr. has been keeping the offense on track over the last five games, leading to covers in four out of five games. 

What is most interesting about the trajectory of Mississippi State’s season has been its ability to keep up with the best teams on its schedule, covering against Georgia and Texas by an average margin of 24 points. 

Florida State vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick

Pick: Notre Dame (-26.5)

Alabama vs. LSU Prediction and Pick

Pick: Alabama (-2.5)

Washington vs. Penn State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Penn State (-13.5)

This is a great opportunity to back Penn State in its annual “White Out Game.” 

Sure, many watched the Nittany Lions come up short last week in a marquee matchup against Ohio State, but this is a great matchup for the home favorite to dispose of an out-matched Washington team. 

The Huskies' defense is incredibly vulnerable against the run, which is Penn State’s preferred method of attack on offense. The Nittany Lions rank 10th in yards per play with its dual-threat rushing attack of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton opening up a passing game that is top 10 in the country in EPA/Pass. 

Washington’s defensive line has been a weak point all season, 92nd in line yards and 93rd in EPA/Rush. 

Factor in the cross-country travel and hostile environment, I like Penn State to get right with a blowout victory. 

Nevada vs. Boise State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Nevada (+24)

Virginia vs. Pittsburgh Prediction and Pick

Pick: Virginia (+7.5)

BYU vs. Utah Prediction and Pick

Pick: Utah (+4)

Utah State vs. Washington State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Utah State (+20.5)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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