College Football Picks Against the Spread for Every Top 25 Game in Week 12

Reed Wallach | Nov 12, 2024

Nov 9, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas Jayhawks quarterback Jalon Daniels (6) hands off to Kansas Jayhawks running back Devin Neal (4) during the third quarter against the Iowa State Cyclones at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images / William Purnell-Imagn Images

We are in the home stretch of the college football season and the market continues to get sharper.

With a ton of data on every team, it's time to focus on current form, teams hitting their stride late in the season, and potentially overvalued rosters. For a team like Kansas, after a slow start and some unlucky finishes, the team is playing its best football at the right time. Can the Jayhawks spoil BYU's perfect season?

Here's how to bet every Top 25 matchup in Week 12 against the spread.

Season Record: 81-89-1

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

College Football Straight Up Picks for Every Top 25 Games

Ohio State vs. Northwestern Prediction and Pick

Pick: Ohio State (-30.5)

Texas vs. Arkansas Prediction and Pick

Pick: Arkansas +13.5

Clemson vs. Pittsburgh Prediction and Pick

Pick: Pittsburgh (+10.5)

Utah vs. Colorado Prediction and Pick

Pick: Colorado (-10.5)

Penn State vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick

Pick: Penn State (-28.5)

Virginia vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick

Pick: Notre Dame (-22.5)

Boston College vs. SMU Prediction and Pick

Pick: SMU (-17)

LSU vs. Florida Prediction and Pick

PIck: Florida (+4.5)

This bet hinges on DJ Lagway and his availability.

If he can play after missing last week due to a hamstring injury, I believe that Florida’s offense has the ability to hang with an overrated LSU defense that is 87th in EPA/Play.

Further, with the Tigers' hopes of making the College Football Playoff now all but over after a disheartening double-digit loss to Alabama at home, I don’t believe we are going to get the most buttoned-up performance from the Tigers.

Florida has been competitive when it can field a full roster, covering against the likes of Georgia in recent weeks with Billy Napier getting a vote of confidence from the UF decision-makers.

I’ll side with the home underdog if the team has its starting quarterback fit to play.

Louisville vs. Stanford Prediction and Pick

Pick: Stanford (+17.5)

Stanford desperately needed a BYE week to get healthy, and I’ll take the home underdog against a Louisville team that has struggled as a big favorite all season, going 1-3 against the spread as an ACC favorite.

Troy Taylor has been a plucky underdog when he can field a roster, and with an extra week to prepare, I’ll give him the benefit of the double to cover at home and keep this scoreline respectable against a Louisville team that has typically been a better bet as an underdog under head coach Jeff Brohm.

Missouri vs. South Carolina Prediction and Pick

Pick: Missouri (+13.5)

Boise State vs. San Jose State Prediction and Pick

Pick: San Jose State (+13.5)

Arizona State vs. Kansas State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Arizona State (+8.5)

Oregon vs. Wisconsin Prediction and Pick

Pick: Wisconsin (+14.5)

Oregon is in an interesting situational spot, playing its eighth straight game as it heads into the home stretch of the season.

While the Ducks were able to cover a big number in Ann Arbor last week thanks to a late score, the team came up just short of covering a three touchdown-plus spread against Maryland at home.

Oregon has its final BYE week on deck before a season finale at home against Washington, is the team going to run it up on a mediocre Wisconsin team? The Ducks have been nursing several injuries, especially at the skill position games as the team’s explosive play rate has been down considerably relative to expectations. The Ducks are 112th in explosive rush rate and 89th in explosive pass rate.

Can Wisconsin hang around the number in a similar fashion to how it played tight with the likes of Penn State as a home underdog?

This may be a workmanlike Oregon win where Wisconsin keeps the scoreline respectable.

Tennessee vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick

Pick: Tennessee (+9.5)

New Mexico State vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Pick

Pick: Texas A&M (-39.5)

Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Cincinnati (+8.5)

Washington State vs. New Mexico Prediction and Pick

PIck: New Mexico (+13.5)

Kansas vs. BYU Prediction and Pick

Pick: Kansas (+3)

While BYU deserves credit for winning its first nine games, the team continues to be priced as a small favorite over the rest of the Big 12, an acknowledgment that this team is not that much better than the middle of the pack.

The team will face a surging Jayhawks team that has an elite ground game around running back Devin Neal who sets up the downfield passing attack. The Jayhawks are top 10 in yards per carry on the season and will face a BYU defense that is outside the top 80 in EPA/Rush this season.

Kansas is trending up and can keep this within one score. The team has lost five of six games by touchdown or fewer.