College Football Picks Against the Spread for Every Top 25 Game in Week 13

Reed Wallach | 2 Hours Ago

Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard (18) calls out the defense during the NCAA football game against the Northwestern Wildcats at Wrigley Field in Chicago on Monday, Nov. 18, 2024. Ohio State won 31-7. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With only two weeks left in the regular season, it's time to use a season’s worth of data to bet some winners against the spread.

With some marquee matchups on the Week 13 slate, including Indiana vs. Ohio State and BYU vs. Arizona State that can help determine conference championship, we are in for a loaded Saturday of wall-to-wall coverage.

Here’s a pick against the spread for every game featuring a top 25 team.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Season Record: 92-96-1

Best College Football Picks Against the Spread for Every Top 25 Game in Week 13

Indiana vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Ohio State (-12.5)

This is the toughest test of Indiana’s season, which hasn’t faced a team that has a clear edge on both sides of the ball, on the road as well.

The Hoosiers have built up an undefeated resume with a sturdy defensive line and a dynamic passing game, but the team will be out-matched all across the field as the Buckeyes have several blue chip prospects that have a ceiling that the veteran, transfer-laden group of Indiana doesn’t have.

The cracks in the armor are starting to show for Indiana, who faced an elite defense for the first time in Week 11, Michigan, and posted an EPA/Play of -0.24, which would be 11th percentile when compared to games last season.

If Ohio State is going to shut down this Indiana offense, I believe the team can eventually break through on offense.

The Buckeyes are dynamic across the field, and while the Hoosiers' defensive line can hold up at times, the group hasn’t seen a running back group like TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, who anchor the nation’s sixth-best offense in terms of EPA/Rush.

By running well, it will set up downfield opportunities for the Buckeyes to get Smith, Emeka Egbuka, and Carnell Tate involved in the passing game.

There is a severe talent gap in this one that it feels like a matter of time before Ohio State breaks it open, and likely doesn't let up.

Wake Forest vs. Miami Prediction and Pick

Pick: Miami (-24.5)

Ole Miss vs. Florida Prediction and Pick

Pick: Ole Miss (-10.5)

SMU vs. Virginia Prediction and Pick

Pick: Virginia (+9.5)

Massachusetts vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick

Pick: Georgia (-42)

UTEP vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick

Pick: Tennessee (-41.5)

Kentucky vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

Pick: Kentucky (+20.5)

Penn State vs. Minnesota Prediction and Pick

Pick: Minnesota (+12.5)

This is a tricky spot for Penn State against a Minnesota team off a BYE week that profiles as one that can defend the Nittany Lions' vaunted run game and shorten this one with its methodical tempo.

Both teams are outside the top 100 in seconds per play and Minnesota’s defensive line has been incredibly sturdy all season long, ranking top 20 in EPA/Play and allowing fewer than two points per drive.

While the offense may struggle to move the ball on Penn State, I believe that the team can hang around this double-digit spread with the way it keeps the ball on the ground and quarterback Max Brosmer as a precision, short-yardage passer. The Golden Gophers are top 50 in success rate this season.

Look for Minnesota to keep it vanilla, lean on its defense, and get a cover.

BYU vs. Arizona State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Arizona State (-3)

This matchup sets up nicely for Arizona State, who has the edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball.

Let’s start with the Sun Devils defense, which ranks top 15 in EPA/Rush, and can limit the BYU rushing attack that has been trending up since lead back LJ Martin returned from injury. If Martin can’t get downhill and get BYU into favorable down and distances, I believe that the Sun Devils can get off the field with relative ease.

Retzlaff has had some strong showings, but there are still plenty of suspect plays on the field, making 12 big-time throws to 13 turnover-worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus. There was typical regression coming his way, and it happened against Kansas at home. How will he respond on the road?

Meanwhile, Sam Leavitt of Arizona State has been the engineer of Dillingham’s offense in the passing game, playing sound football all season and keeping the ball out of harm's way. Leavitt has made eight big-time throws to three turnover-worthy plays this season.

There should be opportunities for Leavitt to take some shots down the field in this one as Arizona State should stay ahead of schedule for this one with Skattebo on the ground against a BYU defense that is outside the top 80 in EPA/Rush.

All signs point to an Arizona State win and cover at home.

Colorado vs. Kansas Prediction and Pick

Pick: Colorado (-2.5)

Pittsburgh vs. Louisville Prediction and Pick

Pick: Pitt (+8)

Louisville proved it is untrustworthy as a big favorite last week in a stunning loss as nearly three-touchdown favorites against Stanford on the road.

The team returns home as a favorite of more than a touchdown against a banged-up Pitt team, but one that can keep this game close with its elite defensive line and talented skill position players. Backup Nate Yarnell may be in for starter Eli Holstein again, but I’m not sure the drop-off is much, if any.

Pitt is 3-1 against the number as an underdog this season and nearly pulled a home upset against Clemson. I think the market is overreacting to Pitt, who was one of the more overrated teams early in the year, but overall this is a middling ACC club against another one in Louisville, bet accordingly.

Missouri vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mississippi State (+7.5)

Missouri is on the road for a second straight game, this time against the worst team in the SEC in Mississippi State.

However, the Bulldogs have been solid to bettors in SEC play, covering in five of seven league games.

While Missouri is the far more talented team, the Tigers didn’t announce starter Brady Cook would be able to play for this one as he battles several injuries ahead of last week’s close call against South Carolina, and hasn’t shown the ability to blowout any teams at the Power Four level all season.

Missouri hasn’t won a game against P4 competition by more than a touchdown this season, and I don’t believe the team can get margin against a well-rested Mississippi State team on the road that has been much improved on offense as the season has gone on.

Army vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick

Pick: Notre Dame (-14.5)

Boise State vs. Wyoming Prediction and Pick

Pick: Boise State (-22)

Washington State vs. Oregon State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Washington State (-13.5)

Texas A&M vs. Auburn Prediction and Pick

Pick: Texas A&M (-2.5)

Alabama vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Pick

Pick: Oklahoma (+13.5)

Vanderbilt vs. LSU Prediction and Pick

Pick: Vanderbilt (+7.5)

Cincinnati vs. Kansas State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Cincinnati (+8.5)