College Football Picks Against the Spread for Every Top 25 Game in Week 4

Reed Wallach | Sep 17, 2024

Sep 14, 2024; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA; Mississippi Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart (2) throws a pass against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons during the first half at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images / Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

With conference play starting across the country, let's see if we can cash in on a handful of teams that may be undervalued in the eyes of oddsmakers.

SEC play will start in earnest this week, but Ole Miss will wrap up nonconference play against Georgia Southern. The Rebels have been running up the score on opponents and this week is expected to be no different. Is Lane Kiffin gunning for his quarterback, Jaxson Dart, to pad his Heisman resume with more gaudy stat lines, leading to blowout wins?

Oddsmakers can't make the Rebels' point spreads high enough. Let's break down and see if the team can cover more than five touchdowns spread on Saturday as well as the entire slate.

Season Record: 20-24

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Illinois vs. Nebraska Prediction and Pick

Pick: Illinois (+7.5)

Nebraska is the likely winner in the eyes of oddsmakers, laying over a touchdown at home, but the Illinois offense has been revitalized with some help in the trenches and an improved passing game that could potentially test the Nebraska secondary.

The Cornhuskers were able to shut down Colorado’s pass-first attack with a fantastic pass rush, but the Fighting Illini are stronger up front and Altmyer did just fine in a tough effort at home against Nebraska last season. While Illinois lost 20-7 against Nebraska, Altmyer was 29-for-47 with 287 yards. With an improved rushing game (the team only had 21 yards on the ground in that one), I believe the Illini can move the ball slightly better in this one.

For what it’s worth, Nebraska’s defense ranks 116th in EPA/Rush so far this season. Can the Illini get the ball moving on the ground to open up the passing game for Altmyer?

Meanwhile, this will be the first true test for Raiola after he moved the ball with ease against three vulnerable defenses. The Cornhuskers offense hasn’t been explosive just yet, and I believe that this team seems some resistance at the line of scrimmage for the first time, below the national average in line yards.

Raiola is talented, but a pocket passer, can Illinois make him uncomfortable early in this one?

I’ll grab the points in a low total game as Illinois should be up to the test of keeping this competitive.

Marshall vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Ohio State (-40)

NC State vs. Clemson Prediction and Pick

Pick: NC State (+20.5)

This number has ballooned out as NC State named freshman quarterback CJ Bailey it's starting quarterback for this one. It's an incredibly difficult spot for Bailey to step into, at Death Valley, but I don't trust Clemson to blow out an NC State defense that has proven it can shut down the Tigers' offense.

Here's what we said in our betting preview

I’m not sure which side of the coin the Tigers land on when looking at its first two games, but it’s hard to look past Tony Gibson’s 3-3-5 defense limiting Cade Klubnik and the Tigers offense to 17 points in Raleigh last season on only 364 yards.

NC State won [last year's] game with only 202 yards, 24-17 in a game that closed with a total of 43.5. While Clemson’s pass-catching group is in better shape this season, I’m not sold that this team is going to be pouring it on offensively against above-average defenses like the Wolfpack.

Kent State vs. Penn State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Penn State (-49)

Arkansas State vs. Iowa State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Arkansas State (+21.5)

USC vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

Pick: USC (-5.5)

UCLA vs. LSU Prediction and Pick

Pick: LSU (--24)

Miami (Ohio) vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick

Pick: Miami (Ohio) (+28)

Notre Dame is back in a familiar spot against a MAC foe, laying four touchdowns.

No, I don't believe an upset is on the horizon, but with Louisville up next on the schedule and mounting injuries, the team may look to shut it down earlier than usual with the game in hand and not blow this game open.

Georgia Tech vs. Louisville Prediction and Pick

Pick: Georgia Tech (+10.5)

Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois Prediction and Pick

Pick: Buffalo (+14.5)

Utah vs. Oklahoma State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Oklahoma State (+2)

Vanderbilt vs. Missouri Prediction and Pick

Pick: Vanderbilt (+21.5)

Miami vs. South Florida Prediction and Pick

Pick: South Florida (+17.5)

Tennessee vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Pick

Pick: Tennessee (-7)

Bowling Green vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Pick

Pick: Bowling Green (+23)

Georgia Southern vs. Ole Miss Prediction and Pick

Pick: Ole Miss (-35.5)

Ole Miss has been running it up on its first three opponents, covering the point spread in all three. I see these tune-up games as another opportunity for the Rebels to cash for bettors and to build up Jaxson Dart's Heisman Trophy campaign.

Louisiana-Monroe vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

Pick: Texas (-44)

Kansas State vs. BYU Prediction and Pick

Pick: BYU (+6.5)