College Football Picks Against the Spread for Every Top 25 Game in Week 7

Reed Wallach | 2 Hours Ago

Sep 28, 2024; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; LSU Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier (13) catches a snap against the South Alabama Jaguars during the second quarter at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

The long awaited Saturday, October 12th college football slate is here!

One of the most highly anticipated weekends of the college football season is upon us and the matchups have not lost much luster, actually gaining in excitement. With Ole Miss taking the trip to Death Valley to face LSU and Ohio State heading out west to face Oregon in a battle of Big Ten heavyweights, we are in for a pivotal Saturday.

Who should you bet? We got you covered below with picks against the spread for every top-25 matchup.

Season Record 44-51-1

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

College Football Picks Against the Spread for Week 7

Utah vs. Arizona State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Arizona State (+6.5)

We previewed the Friday night matchup here:

The status of Rising is of course impactful on the point spread, but I will side with the Sun Devils as an underdog of more than three. Of course, injury news is important to get the best number, so monitor Rising’s availability throughout the week, but this number would seem to indicate that he’s on track to play. 

The Sun Devils, though, have proven to have a stout defensive line that can limit the opposing offense. The defensive line has tallied 12 sacks in five games and ranks 23rd in yards per play allowed while shutting off the opposing running game to less than three yards per carry, top 15 in the country. 

We haven’t seen Rising all that much this season, or the season before that, so we still don’t have a true sense of where he is physically and if he can lead a Utah offense on the road to beat a quality foe. The Utes are 100th in EPA/Play, reliant on moving the ball methodically down the field and the offensive line ranks 81st in line yards. 

Arizona State’s offense may have the edge, especially in the Tempe heat, against a road Utah team the team ranks 12th in offensive line yards and 32nd in EPA/Play. With points expected to be a premium, I’ll grab the team with a proven floor on both offense and defense. 

South Carolina vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick

Pick: South Carolina (+21)

Clemson vs. Wake Forest Prediction and Pick

Pick: Wake Forest (+20.5)

Missouri vs. Massachusetts Prediction and Pick

Pick: Missouri (-27.5)

Texas vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Pick

Pick: Oklahoma (+14.5)

Penn State vs. USC Prediction and Pick

Pick: USC (+5)

Stanford vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick

Pick: Notre Dame (-23.5)

Cal vs. Pittsburgh Prediction and Pick

Pick: Pitt (-3.5)

This is a brutal setup for Cal, who is traveling across the country on the heels of a near-upset of Miami, blowing a three-score second-half lead against the Hurricanes at home. 

The team heads across the country to face a revitalized Pitt offense that also bolsters a sturdy defensive line that is top 50 in the country in terms of EPA/Play and 18th in yards per carry allowed. 

If Cal can’t establish the run, I don’t believe the unit will be able to hit explosive plays like it did as a big underdog against Miami. 

Meanwhile, Cal’s defense has struggled to slow down the opposition on the ground this season, 120th in EPA/Rush. Pitt is averaging nearly six yards per carry and can get margin in this one. 

Purdue vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick

Pick: Illinois (-19.5)

Purdue can’t seem to find a bottom, outscored 184-44 in its four games against FBS competition. 

The team has fired its offensive coordinator Graham Harrell and is still searching for answers, and I don’t envision it will get easier against a potent Illinois offense that is 16th in EPA/Pass and off a BYE week at home. 

Further, Purdue boat raced the Fighting Illini last week, 44-19. I believe Illinois gets it back with a blowout win against a lowly opponent. 

Arizona vs. BYU Prediction and Pick

Pick: Arizona (+5.5)

Mississippi State vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick

Pick: Georgia (-34)

Florida vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick

Pick: Tennessee (-14.5)

While Tennessee is off a shocking upset at Arkansas, this is a good landing spot for the Vols to get back on track. 

The Florida defense is outside the top 100 in EPA/Play this season and will be a welcome sight for the Vols offense that has played its last two games against two teams inside the top 30 in EPA/Play on defense this season in Arkansas and Oklahoma. 

While UF got a nice win in blowout fashion against UCF, I don’t believe the team can slow down this Tennessee team that can name its number while feasting on a Florida team that has lacked big play capability this season, bottom half of the country in explosive run and pass rate. 

Ohio State vs. Oregon Prediction and Pick

Pick: Ohio State (-3.5)

Ole Miss vs. LSU Prediction and Pick

Pick: LSU (+3.5)

From our betting preview, we are taking the points with LSU.

This is a brutal setup for Ole Miss, who is playing its seventh straight game on the road against LSU at one of the toughest venues in the country. 

While Ole Miss has been the more complete team thus far, the LSU defense still has faults under new defensive coordinator Blake Baker, the team will be well-rested and as healthy as it has been all season against the Rebels, who have a building list of injuries. 

After playing the likes of Kentucky and South Carolina, two defenses that are inside the top 25 nationally in EPA/Play, the Ole Miss offense is starting to run on fumes. 

With several offensive linemen banged up, in addition to star wide receiver Tre Harris, edge rusher Princely Umanmielen, and running back Henry Parrish, the Rebels are limping into this one. 

Further, while the Tigers have been struggling on defense, LSU has a stout pass rush, top 15 in the country, per Pro Football Focus. Can the team force enough negative plays to get enough stops? 

On the other side of the ball, Ole Miss has benefitted from an easy crop of opposing offenses. The LSU group will have a full week to prepare for an elite Rebels pass rush, but one that hasn’t been tested in the passing game. The Rebels haven’t faced an offense inside the top half of the country in EPA/Pass this season. 

This is a perfect set up for LSU to cover as three point home underdogs, and potentially win outright. 

Iowa State vs. West Virginia Prediction and Pick

Pick: West Virginia (+3)

Kansas State vs. Colorado Prediction and Pick

Pick: Colorado (+4.5)

This is a poor matchup for Kansas State against Colorado’s high-octane offense, as noted in our betting preview

The Wildcats' defense is elite against the run, ranking fifth in EPA/Rush and 16th in yards per carry allowed, but the Buffaloes are a pass-happy offense. Colorado passes the ball nearly 62% of the time when it possesses the ball, fifth in the country. 

For Kansas State, that’s a grave concern. The Wildcats are bottom 10 in the country in terms of pass rush grade, per Pro Football Focus, and are 88th in EPA/Pass. 

Meanwhile, the Buffaloes proved that it’s improving on the defensive side of the ball, particularly against the run, 38th in defensive line yards and 44th in EPA/Rush, which is massive against a run-first K-State offense. 

If the Wildcats fall behind, it’s going to be tough sledding to come from behind given Johnson’s inability to pass the ball effectively. K-State is sixth in EPA/Rush and 59th in EPA/Pass. 

I’ll take the points with the live underdog. 

Boise State vs. Hawaii Prediction and Pick

Pick: Hawaii (+20.5)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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