College Football Picks Against the Spread for Every Top 25 Games in Week 14

Reed Wallach | 3 Hours Ago

Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard (18) motions at the line of scrimmage during the NCAA football game against the Indiana Hoosiers at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Monday, Nov. 25, 2024. Ohio State won 38-15. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The final week of the season is here, and the long winding road to the postseason has reached its final slate of games. 

With every team in action and with a split schedule with a handful of games on Friday, we are all looking for some Thanksgiving weekend action. Well, you’ve come to the right place with picks against the spread for every game on the Week 14 slate!

Here’s our picks for every Top 25 matchup to close out the regular season.

Season Record: 101-106-1

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

College Football Picks Against the Spread for Every Top 25 Game in Week 14

Memphis vs. Tulane Prediction and Pick

Pick: Memphis +14

Oregon State vs. Boise State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Oregon State +20

Boise State continues to trend downwards as the season goes on, struggling to get separation for a full 60 minutes over the last three weeks against a fairly shaky set of opponents. 

While Oregon State is of a similar caliber, I’ll grab the points as Boise State has nothing to play for in this one outside of just scoring a win with the Mountain West title game next week. 

Not to mention, Heisman Trophy candidate Ashton Jeanty suffered an injury last week. While he returned to help secure a win against Wyoming, is Boise State going to run him into the ground in this one and risk him at full strength against UNLV? 

Oregon State is playing for bowl eligibility, and I believe the team can keep it within three touchdowns. 

Oklahoma State vs. Colorado Prediction and Pick

Pick: Oklahoma State +16.5

Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mississippi State +26

Georgia Tech vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick

Pick: Georgia Tech +19.5

Michigan vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Ohio State -20.5

The interesting part of this game to me is how Michigan’s defense does against an Ohio State offensive line that is down three of its starting linemen. 

The Buckeyes did struggle at times against Indiana's defensive line, especially in short-yardage situations, which can be impactful as the Wolverines have one of the best groups in the trenches in the country. 

If the Ohio State running game can’t get going, the team can lean on its aerial attack, but offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has made it clear that this is a run-first group that likes to utilize that to open up the passing game. 

There could be some stalled drives in this one, but the point spread correctly shows the gap on the other side of the ball, where Michigan will struggle to move the ball against Ohio State’s defense. 

The Buckeyes let up an opening drive touchdown to Indiana, but after that, essentially shut down the Hoosiers offense. Outside of that drive, Indiana averaged less than two yards per play.

Michigan isn’t a threat in the passing game, outside the top 120 nationally in EPA/Pass, and the offense likely won’t be able to sustain drives with a run-only approach with a talent gap in the trenches. 

Now, Ohio State may want to run this game up if the game gets to garbage time, so any full-game bets could be hanging onto that. I’d only lay it with the Buckeyes in this game as I can’t see the Wolverines keeping up for a full 60 minutes. 

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt Prediction and Pick

Pick: Vanderbilt +11

The veer-and-shoot offense that Josh Huepel runs hasn’t connected in terms of big plays as the team is outside the top 100 in explosive pass and rush rate. 

Vanderbilt has done a remarkable job all season with limiting big plays and the amount of possessions in the game as the team has limited mistakes and been able to stay on the field. 

With fewer possessions, it's harder to get a margin on a team if it's able to get timely stops. While the Tennessee defensive line is among the best in the country, the Vanderbilt offense has been able to stack up in SEC play and string together quality drives. The ‘Dores rank 52nd in the country in points per drive at over two. 

Tennessee’s offense has been well below expectations all season as the team relies on its lead back, Dylan Sampson to shoulder the load. Sampson the Tennessee offense averages over five yards per carry, but the Commodores defense is a top 50 rush defense in terms of EPA/Play. 

Vanderbilt has covered in all six games that it has been an underdog of more than 10 points as the market fails to capture this team’s true power rating. While Tennessee has a significant talent edge, I do believe Vandy has the avenues to make the Vols sweat for its CFP berth. 

With fewer possessions and an offense that has been shaky at times this season, only 54th in EPA/Play, I believe that the home underdog can stay close yet again. 

Tennessee has beaten one SEC team by more than 10 points this season, the league’s worst unit Mississippi State, and I don’t see it happening here. 

South Carolina vs. Clemson Prediction and Pick

Pick: Clemson -2.5

UTSA vs. Army Prediction and Pick

Pick: UTSA +7

Illinois vs. Northwestern Prediction and Pick

Pick: Northwestern +7.5

Maryland vs. Penn State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Penn State -24.5

Notre Dame vs. USC Prediction and Pick

Pick: USC +7.5

Auburn vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick

Pick: Auburn +10.5

Miami (Florida) vs. Syracuse Prediction and Pick

Pick: Syracuse +11

While Miami got a late cover against Wake Forest, I’m still not sold on this defense doing enough to slow down a plus offense like Syracuse on the road. 

The Orange will be able to test a Hurricanes defense that is bottom five in the country in explosive pass defense, which sets up nicely for Kyle McCord and the pass-happy Syracuse offense to go shot-for-shot with Cam Ward. 

Cal vs. SMU Prediction and Pick

Pick: SMU -13.5

Arizona State vs. Arizona Prediction and Pick

Pick: Arizona +8.5

Arkansas vs. Missouri Prediction and Pick

Pick: Missouri -3.5

Purdue vs. Indiana Prediction and Pick

Pick: Indiana -28.5

Purdue hasn’t beaten an FBS team this season, and it’s been absolutely blasted against elite opponents. 

Against four College Football Playoff contenders (Notre Dame, Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State) the Boilermakers have lost a combined 195-17. 

Indiana will win with ease and likely score a cover. 

Washington vs. Oregon Prediction and Pick

Pick: Oregon -19.5

Kansas State vs. Iowa State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Kansas State +3

Texas vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Pick

Pick: Texas -5.5

Nevada vs. UNLV Prediction and Pick

Pick: Nevada +17.5

Houston vs. BYU Prediction and Pick

Pick: Houston +12.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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