College Football Playoff National Championship Betting Notes, Preview, Predictions: Reed 'Em and Weep

Ohio State Buckeyes defensive end Jack Sawyer (33) knocks the ball out of the hands of Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) and returns the fumble for a touchdown in the fourth quarter of the Cotton Bowl Classic during the College Football Playoff semifinal game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on January, 10, 2025.
Ohio State Buckeyes defensive end Jack Sawyer (33) knocks the ball out of the hands of Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) and returns the fumble for a touchdown in the fourth quarter of the Cotton Bowl Classic during the College Football Playoff semifinal game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on January, 10, 2025. / Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

We have arrived.

One game left to determine the 2024 National Championship in a historic College Football Playoff that featured 12 teams. We have Ohio State, the preseason darling that took a winding road during the regular season before a dominant CFP run, taking on Notre Dame, who overcame one of the biggest upset losses in the regular season to thrive in the postseason.

There's plenty of star power between each side, but the odds are heavily in favor of the Buckeyes. Is it justified? Here's how I see the National Championship with a host of matchup notes and edges for each team.

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Betting Notes

  • Action has come in on the Notre Dame side since opening, although not through any key numbers with the Buckeyes sitting as about an eight-point favorite while the total is up slightly to 46.5 
  • Ohio State may have struggled to pull away from Texas for much of the game, but the team still clearly outplayed the Longhorns. The team posted a 78th percentile success rate and a 62nd percentile EPA/Play when compared to games last season, per GameOnPaper, while Texas checked in with a 44th percentile success rate and 15th percentile EPA/Play mark. 
  • The Buckeyes have plenty of margin for error, evident in the win against Texas, and the market isn’t showing the difference between Notre Dame and the Longhorns effectively, in my opinion. 
  • Notre Dame remains limited in the passing game relative to a typical National Championship team, ranking 48th in EPA/Pass in the regular season. Further, the team ranked 81st in pass blocking grade this season, per Pro Football Focus.
  • With injuries along the offensive, starting left tackle Anthonie Knapp will miss the game with a high ankle sprain (ironically being replaced by preseason starter Charles Jagusah who suffered a torn pectoral muscle in the preseason), the Fighting Irish are going to struggle against the Ohio State front. Starting guard Rocco Spindler is also a game-time decision after also going down with an injury in the Orange Bowl.
  • The Buckeyes defensive line feasted on Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns' second-ranked pass-blocking offensive line this season, tallying four sacks and a game-sealing strip-sack that went back for a touchdown. Overall the Buckeyes registered its second-best pass rush grade of the season in the Cotton Bowl and now will face an easier matchup. 
  • I don't expect Notre Dame’s offense to get much traction in the passing game. With that in mind, I’m targeting Riley Leonard rushing props, namely his over rushing attempts, and Aneyas Williams receiving yards. 
  • It’s worth noting that the key to success for Notre Dame in the Orange was going 11-for-17 on third down while holding Penn State to 5-for-13 on third and fourth down. However, I expect far more struggles for the Fighting Irish as Ohio State is tops in the nation in success rate. There are simply not many holes to get into favorable down and distances in this one where as the team was able to get to third-and-short where it used Leonard's legs a ton.
  • You can find more on player props that I’m on in the National Championship Game here. 
  • Switching sides, Ohio State’s offense will have to deal with a strong Notre Dame defense, but one that I’m still not sold on. 
  • Al Golden has made me eat crow during the postseason, but I think the team finally meets its match against Ohio State. 
  • The ND secondary has faced an Indiana passing game that fails to hold up against postseason competition, a Georgia team on its backup quarterback, and a Penn State team that had zero completions to wide receivers. 
  • With that in mind, I think we see the Ohio State pass-catching group get going in this game. While Golden may take a page from the Texas playbook to slow down Jeremiah Smith, who had one catch for four yards against the Longhorns, this is a great setup for Emeka Egbuka to have a big game. 
  • You can read more about how I’m angling to play Egbuka’s player props here, but I believe that the vulnerable part of the ND secondary comes in the slot, typically played by senior Jordan Clark, which is where Egbuka primarily plays. 
  • Clark was exposed against USC’s talented pass-catching group, posting a 41.3 PFF coverage grade with slot receiver Makhi Lemon catching three of four targets for 37 yards as well as Duce Robinson and Kyle Ford each caught 20-plus yard passes against him. 
  • Egbuka figures to be the primary pass catcher in this one, but the Ohio State run game should feast in this one as well. 
  • Penn State had a monster rushing game against Notre Dame, posting an 82nd percentile EPA/Rush in the Orange Bowl. Overall, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen combined for 166 yards on 34 carries in spite of a limited Penn State passing game. 
  • Ohio State's run game with Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson is just as devastating, arguably more.
  • Ultimately, I see too many buttons for Ohio State to press in this one. The team is loaded on offense, of course, able to win on the ground against a Notre Dame team that is 71st in line yards, and able to put pressure on a secondary that has been lightly tested throughout the year. 
  • The key in this one for Notre Dame staying close is being opportunistic. The team had the most turnovers gained in the regular season (possibly schedule-aided), and if the group can get ahead and utilize Leonard in the ground game to move the chains and keep OSU off the field, it’s in business. 
  • However, it feels like a lot of “ifs” for Notre Dame in this one. The group out-executed Penn State en route to a win in the Orange Bowl and feasted on a limited Georgia and Indiana roster to get to this game. 
  • Now, the team will meet its match and I think Ohio State will run away with this one. 

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Reed Wallach
REED WALLACH

Reed is a Senior Editor at SI Betting. He grew up in New Jersey and graduated from the University of Wisconsin. His passion lies with the Brooklyn Nets, but is always hunting for an edge.