College Football Playoff Semifinals Betting Preview: Reed 'Em and Weep

Reed Wallach | Jan 7, 2025

Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day leads warm ups for the College Football Playoff quarterfinal against the Oregon Ducks at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif. on Jan. 1, 2025. Ohio State won 41-21. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

It’s the semifinals of the College Football Playoff!

The first time 12-team CFP has been an interesting one to say the least as many have spent the entire season waiting for a true National Championship contender to emerge, and we have found our team. With four teams left in the field, all appear to be chasing Ohio State, who has become the odds on favorite to win the National Championship. 

The Buckeyes are primed to face Texas in the Cotton Bowl while Notre Dame and Penn State face off in the Orange Bowl on Thursday night. 

Below, you’ll find all you need to get set to bet this one with a deep dive into how each team got here, the matchup and a handful of betting angles to take ahead of kickoff!

College Football Playoff Semifinals Betting Preview

Notre Dame vs. Penn State Betting Notes

• Two elite defenses meet in the Orange Bowl, but it’s what the two offenses can do that will determine who plays in the National Championship. 
• Let’s start with Notre Dame, who enters with more questions than before with star running back Jeremiyah Love (more than seven yards per carry) banged up with a re-aggravated knee injury. Love suffered a setback in the Georgia game in which he had six carries for 19 yards and was sporting a knee brace at practice this week while running with the second team. If you can find his rushing yard prop in the 40’s, I would bet the under as his usage seems to be limited. 
• Further, the schedule is doing the Fighting Irish no favors. The team played on Thursday afternoon after the unfortunate circumstances in New Orleans, leaving the team one week to prepare while Penn State played on Tuesday night in the Fiesta Bowl. 
• That’s pivotal after star pass rusher Abdul Carter suffered a shoulder injury in the first half of the Nittany Lions’ double digit win. Carter, who is questionable as of this writing, appears to be trending towards in. 
• With Carter back on the field, expect the Nittany Lions pass rush to give Riley Leonard fits. 
• This is a limited Notre Dame offense. The team posted 244 total yards against Georgia, and outside of a 98-yard touchdown run by Love in the first quarter, totaled 288 against Indiana.
• With a limited Love, and a pedestrian passing game that ranked 45th in EPA/Pass this season, I believe that the team is going to need to lean on its defense and the legs of Riley Leonard in order to get past Penn State. 
• Leonard ran for 80 yards in the Sugar Bowl, nearly out-pacing himself in terms of passing yards in which he had 90. In the College Football Playoff, the Duke transfer is up to 25 carries and 110 yards. 
• When facing an AP Poll Top 25 team at the time of the game, Leonard has not been shy to keep the ball himself. He averages 11 carries and 56 yards on the ground in those six games. 
• Penn State hasn’t seen too many mobile quarterbacks this season, especially that of Leonard’s 6’4”, 216-pound stature. While the team shut down Garrett Greene in Week 1, Leonard does prove to be a different test and this Penn State defense ranks outside the top half of the country in tackling grade, per Pro Football Focus. 
• While Leonard may be a force with his legs yet again, the team is going to need to have some bounces go its way and pounce on turnovers like it did against Georgia. Marcus Freeman’s group forced the most turnovers in the country in the regular season, but few teams are more sure-handed with the pigskin than Penn State. 
• Drew Allar has been outstanding this season protecting the football, throwing only three interceptions and a gaudy 20 big time throw to seven turnover worthy play split. The big-armed signal caller is at the helm of an offense that ranked top 10 in EPA/Pass this season as offensive coordinator has used timely deep passes to stretch the field for the two-headed running attack of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. 
• The Penn State offense may be inconsistent, but the ability for Allar to stretch the field in ways that Notre Dame doesn’t, factored in with its bruising run game, it feels that the team has too many counters to whatever the opposition has to offer in this one. 
• ND has been banged up on defense of late, losing defensive tackle Rylie Mills in the first round and two of the most impactful defenders – Charles Cross and Xavier Watts – also went down with injuries in the Sugar Bowl (both are likely playing). 
• I trust Penn State to find answers to win a close affair in the Orange Bowl. 
• One Nittany Lions player that stands out to me in the player prop market to me (again) is Harrison Wallace. 
• Wallace had gone over this number in every game dating back to Week 6 prior to the Fiesta Bowl and with Notre Dame’s strength at safety that can potentially limit tight end Tyler Warren, Drew Allar may focus on Wallace more. 
• Further, this matchup suits Wallace nicely, who is the best wide receiver against man coverage, which is a foundation of Al Golden’s defense with Notre Dame. Wallace has caught 12 of 13 targets against man coverage, the second most on the team with a gaudy 3.11 yard per route run, per PFF. 
• As you can see, I see Penn State playing a more reliable game and out-lasting a limited Notre Dame offense and leaning on the field position in order to grab a low scoring win. 

Ohio State vs. Texas Betting Notes

• Ohio State has realized its final form, and that’s the best team in the country. 
• The best team doesn’t always win, but there hasn’t been a more impressive showing in college football than what the Buckeyes have done to both Tennessee and Oregon in the CFP en route to the Cotton Bowl. 
• The Buckeyes have scored 40-plus in each game as it has unleashed its aerial attack on college football with the rise of ultra talented freshman Jeremiah Smith, who has 13 catches for 290 yards and four touchdowns in two postseason games. 
• Of course, when the offense is playing at the ultimate ceiling, the quarterback is playing at a high level as well. Will Howard has been borderline elite all season, but Ohio State’s offense looked clunky at times. Not anymore. Howard is completing nearly 76% of his passes for five touchdowns and an interception while passing for more than 310 yards in each game. 
• When the passing game is humming like that, the run game opens up as well. 
• Quinshon Judkins continues to handle a majority of the carries, but it’s TreVeyon Henderson that stands out as the explosive rusher in the Buckeyes backfield. Henderson’s rushing yard prop in the mid-40’s remains too low if he is going to handle about 10 carries. He is averaging more than seven yards per rush this season. 
• The Texas defense is elite, and the secondary poses a stiff test for the Buckeyes passing game, but I don’t believe it has the versatility to hang with an offense that is playing this well. 
• Natural regression can come from two of the best games of the season, the Buckeyes averaged more than seven yards per play in each game which each would be in the top 85th percentile compared to games last season according to GameonPaper, but there are concerns for this Texas team. 
• The Longhorns struggled to slow down the Clemson offense for a full 60 minutes, and crumbled amidst a ton of time on the field against Arizona State. The Longhorns quick hitting offense led to a ton of snaps on the field for the defense. Without including the two sets of overtimes, Texas’ defense was on the field for nearly 38 minutes of game time in the Peach Bowl. 
• The diminishing returns may be looming for this Longhorns defense, and the Ohio State offense is operating at a high level. Back to the Clemson game, the Tigers passing game went off for 336 yards and posted a 73rd percentile EPA/Dropback. While some of that was game script, the Texas secondary hasn’t faced that many elite passing games, and there is none better than Ohio State. 
• On the other side, the Texas offense continues to have question marks as the team continues to struggle to put together a full 60 minutes. 
• Quinn Ewers has thrown more turnover worthy plays (19) than big time throws (17), according to Pro Football Focus. 
• Further, the run defense is likely going to struggle against a veteran Buckeyes defense line. Ohio State is fifth in the nation in both EPA/Rush and yards per carry allowed. 
• The Longhorns averaged less than three yards per game against a sturdy Arizona State rush defense, but not one of the same caliber as Ohio State. This game is likely going to fall on Ewers arm. 
• While the Texas offense is talented, and Steve Sarkisian will surely scheme up some plays for the Longhorns offense, it feels that this team is lacking the firepower to keep up with the Buckeyes. 
• The way to beat Ohio State is to connect on deep passes. The team is outside the top 40 in explosive pass defense, but the secondary has consistently improved as the season has gone on. The group is tops in the country in success rate and second in yards per play. Opponents can’t drive the field on this unit. 
• That’s impactful because Ewers has struggled to push the ball down the field all season with diminished arm strength. He is completing 48% of his passes of more than 10 yards down the field, which comprises about 34% of his dropbacks. 
• If you want to bet Ohio State – and trust me it's hard not to after the start to this postseason – you are paying top dollar to back the Buckeyes. While the team is most certainly the highest power rated team in the field, the Longhorns are still an elite outfit and don’t need to play that great to stay within a score. 
• Instead of paying for Ohio State at its highest, my preference is to target the Buckeyes team total over, which is at 29.5. 
• In a kitchen sink game, I expect Texas to be aggressive, but that can lead to a few short fields as well. I don’t envision the Longhorns keeping the Buckeyes down for too long, and if this game gets away from UT, I can see some garbage time scores from Ohio State.

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