College Football Playoffs Preview: Why Texas State is My Group of Five Pick to Make Expanded CFP

Reed Wallach | Aug 17, 2024

Sep 2, 2023; Waco, Texas, USA; Texas State Bobcats head coach G.J. Kinne reacts after a touchdown against the Baylor Bears during the first half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports / Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

The College Football Playoff is changing before our very eyes, with 12 teams set to make the postseason, tripling from the four teams in the past.

Moving forward, one Group of Five team will receive an automatic bid to the expanded CFP. While there are plenty of teams that make up the Group of Five, there are only a few teams that have the ability to compile an impressive record and accolades worthy of making the expanded CFP, chosen by the College Football Playoff selection committee.

While the market has grouped a trio of talented teams together, its a group further down the list that stands out as a must bet ahead of the season due to its tantalizing upside.

For starters, let's set the stage with the odds and contenders for the CFP in the Group of Five ranks.

College Football Playoff Odds for Group of Five Team

• Boise State: +400
• Liberty: +440
• Memphis: +550
• Tulane: +1100
• UTSA: +1300
• Texas State: +1400
• Appalachian State: +1400
• South Florida: +2000
• Louisiana: +2000
• James Madison: +2200

Which Group of Five Teams are Contending for a Spot? 

Again, we are at the beginning of the season with a new betting market. I don’t believe oddsmakers have a great idea of how to price this market (and there is an incredibly high hold on it), so the sportsbooks are going to let the results and action dictate this market. 

As for the Group of Five team, which automatically gets one bid, we don’t know exactly how the selection process will go. 

Heading into the year, Boise State is the betting favorite, Liberty is the close second and Memphis is the third, viewed as the three most talented teams at this level and the favorites to win their respective league. 

With that being said, this is far from a certainty. 

For starters, Boise State’s defense was below the national average last season and used a favorable closing stretch under former interim head coach turned full time head coach Spencer Danielson. The Broncos will also face a very likely CFP team in Oregon on the road in Week 2, if that game goes poorly, will that be weighed even more against the Broncos at the end of the season? Very possible. 

Speaking of Oregon, Liberty received the G5 New Year’s Six Bowl bid last season. While teams change, and I’d argue the Flames are slightly worse than last season’s 13-0 Conference USA title team, the team got blitzed by the Ducks in the Fiesta Bowl, 45-6. Will Jamey Chadwell’s team get the benefit of the doubt if the team navigates a soft schedule to get consideration? 

Memphis, plays in a challenging AAC, but also has a difficult schedule. It plays at Florida State, and also plays on the road against teams priced as the second, third and fourth choice in the betting market in South Florida, UTSA and Tulane. Will the Tigers be looked at favorably, if in contention at all, if the team has two or three losses? 

To me, there are warts with all three top teams. On paper, those teams are talented, but is the path that viable? I'd argue no.

Texas State is Best Bet to Make College Football Playoffs

I believe you can look further down the board for the G5 bid and I have circled Texas State as my team. Here’s what I wrote in my Sun Belt preview last month about the team priced +1400 to make the CFP!

This season, nine starters return on both sides of the ball, and one new starter is reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year Jordan McCloud from James Madison. McCloud is a dual-threat quarterback who has had success in this league already and is now in a more potent offense around the likes of Second Team All-American Ismail Mahdi at running back as well as an offensive line littered with Power Four transfers. 

The defense is boom or bust, fresh off a season in which the unit ranked second in the country in tackles for loss, but also 128th in explosive run defense and 110th in explosive pass defense. Maybe that trips them up in a game or two, but I believe the talent on the Bobcats is too much to ignore in this league that should be better in year two of this system. 

The Bobcats don’t play Appalachian State this season and will play Louisiana at home. The team will face talented teams like UTSA and Arizona State, but both travel to San Marcos in coin-flip matchups. 

There is enough competition for this team that if it all clicks, it not only can put up a gaudy win-loss record but have a formidable case to make the CFP. I like them to come out of the West division and ultimately beat either Appalachian State or James Madison in the title game, one that can determine a postseason berth. 

One team will be selected from the G5 ranks. We have no idea how it will be decided, but I do believe that we enter this season with far more variance than how the market is priced. 

With that being said, there is enough talent for Texas State to click in year two with Kinne's offensive system and the acquisition of the Sun Belt Player of the Year in McCloud that may be better suited to run this offense than last year's QB T.J. Finley.

Further, the Bobcats have a clear path to accumulating wins, and impressive wins, while not being in over its head. Sure, projecting an undefeated season may be underrating the grind of a full season, but the team could be favored in every single regular season game. Not to mention, there is enough quality on the schedule that the team can win tiebreakers over the likes of Liberty.

There is a drop-off in odds, but I'd argue its pricing in a near certainty that one of the top three teams is getting a CFP bid, when there are far more questions as we start a new season with a brand new process. I'm all for betting on uncertainty in a situation like this, and Texas State has my eye heading into the year.

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Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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