College Football Straight Up Picks for Every Top 25 Game in Conference Championship Game

Reed Wallach | 14 Hours Ago

Nov 30, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings (7) in action during the game between the SMU Mustangs and the California Golden Bears at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

It all comes down to this!

The final week of the season ahead of the College Football Playoff and Bowl season culminates with Conference Championship weekend! With marquee matchups across the weekend, including the ACC Championship Game possibly serving as a win-and-in scenario for both SMU and Clemson to the CFP, let's get you set with straight-up picks for every game.

Season Record: 163-63

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

College Football Straight Up Picks for Every Conference Championship Game

AAC Championship Game Prediction and Pick

Tulane vs. Army 

Pick: Tulane -6

Conference USA Championship Game Prediction and Pick

Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State

Pick: Jacksonville State -160

Mountain West Championship Game Prediction and Pick

UNLV vs. Boise State 

Pick: Boise State -175

While Boise State has been far from its best down the stretch, I do believe some of that can be attributed to the quality of opponents the team has been facing, closing the season by facing one bowl team after beating UNLV on the road more than a month ago.

When the Broncos beat UNLV by five on the road, the team closed as a four-and-a-half point favorite, and with the setting switching to the ‘Smurf Turf’, I believe that the home team is being overlooked in this matchup. 

UNLV’s defense has shown some cracks in the armor of late, allowing a handful of explosive plays to lowly opponents that can be there for not just running back Ashton Jeanty, but a talented pass-catching group as well. 

Boise beat UNLV in Las Vegas in the Mountain West title game, and while I’m sure the Rebels would like revenge, I believe the price is overrating how close these two teams are. 

Big 12 Championship Game Prediction and Pick

Iowa State vs. Arizona State

Pick: Arizona State -135

MAC Championship Game Prediction and Pick

Ohio vs. Miami (Ohio)

Pick: Miami (Ohio) -140

SEC Championship Game Prediction and Pick

Georgia vs. Texas 

Pick: Texas -135

While Texas was blitzed early in its game against Georgia, I believe that there is cause to go back to the small favorite in the SEC Championship Game. 

The Bulldogs continue to get off to slow starts, its best start actually came against Texas in the Longhorns' first significant test of the season against a battle-tested Dawgs, and it has made for difficult game states. 

Few teams get off to hotter starts than Texas, as the team’s struggles against Georgia appear to be more of an aberration than the norm. The Longhorns average more than 21 points per game in the first half, sixth in the country, while Georgia is a pedestrian 79th in the same metric. 

A hot start is massive in a game like this, especially with the Bulldogs off an eight-overtime affair against Georgia Tech last week and already into the College Football Playoff. 

This game can cascade for the Dawgs quickly as Texas builds an early lead with its in-form offense that has found something with Arch Manning being used at quarterback in run packages. 

Sun Belt Championship Game Prediction and Pick

Marshall vs. Louisiana 

Pick: Marshall +170

ACC Championship Game Prediction and Pick

Clemson vs. SMU

Pick: SMU -140

There’s a pretty clear difference between SMU and Clemson, and while there may be some gripes about the Mustangs’ lack of difficult opponents, the team has done little to cause much concern in a matchup against the Tigers, who have struggled against its toughest opponents. 

As noted last week in Reed ‘Em and Weep, Clemson has fallen off big time against elite pass rushes. 

“Against the three elite pass rushes the team has faced, Clemson has failed to crack more than five yards per play against Georgia, Louisville, and Pitt.” 

While Clemson was able to surpass six yards per play in the loss, the team struggled with negative plays far too often, posting a sub-par EPA/Play mark. Further, the team’s struggles on defense were showcased against an explosive South Carolina offense. 

The Tigers' rush defense is bottom 20 in the country in explosive rush rate, which is a big part of the SMU offense that has a capable runner in Jennings at quarterback as well as running back Brashard Smith, who is averaging six yards per carry and has at least a 19 yard run in all but one game this season. 

Meanwhile, I believe far too much pressure will fall on Klubnik’s arm as the SMU defensive line ranks top 15 in the country in pass rush grade, per Pro Football Focus. The ‘Stangs are allowing less than three yards per carry and are tops in EPA/Rush, a huge edge against a Clemson offense that is typically buoyed by running back Phil Mafah. However, Mafah is starting to slow down as the season goes on, averaging about three yards per carry over the last three games. 

SMU is far more versatile and has the edge over a Clemson team that has failed to live up to the hype when it faces similar competition. 

Big Ten Championship Game Prediction and Pick

Penn State vs. Oregon 

Pick: Oregon -160

Penn State still lacks a truly signature win on the season, and I believe that its lack of competition shows in the Big Ten Championship Game. 

Oregon has proven it can move the ball through the air and on the ground against all different kinds of competition, and I envision the quick passing game with Dillon Gabriel can offset the vaunted Penn State pass rush. 

Meanwhile, I believe the Nittany Lions' lack of a big play weapon at wide receiver alleviates some of the concern for Oregon’s defense which hasn’t allowed more than 21 points since the Ohio State game on October 12th. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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