College Football Straight Up Picks for Every Top 25 Game in Week 6

Reed Wallach | 7 Hours Ago

Sep 28, 2024; Boise, Idaho, USA; Boise State Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty (2) after scoring a 64-yard touchdown versus the Washington State Cougars at Albertsons Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Losness-Imagn Images / Brian Losness-Imagn Images

We continue to move through the college football season as we continue to learn more and more about each team.

While there may not be a high leverage matchup like Georgia vs. Alabama last week, there are plenty of intriguing matchups that will help us learn more about each ball club, including matchups like Missorui traveling to Texas A&M and Ohio State facing an elite defense in Iowa.

Below, you'll find our favorite straight up picks for every Top 25 matchup on Saturday's slate.

Season Record: 59-20

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Best Picks Straight Up For Top 25 Games in College Football Week 6

Michigan State vs. Oregon Prediction and Pick

Pick: Oregon (-4000)

Syracuse vs. UNLV Prediction and Pick

Pick: Syracuse (+190)

This is a massive overreaction to the UNLV win against Fresno State last week, which was indeed impressive, but this is a big upgrade after the team closed inside of a field goal against the Bulldogs. 

Syracuse has been a high octane offense that is 29th in EPA/Pass and averaging more than three points per game. This will be the first offense that the Rebels new look defense has faced that is inside the top 50 in EPA/Pass. 

The Rebels, meanwhile, may have gone to a better passer in Williams, but there is now film for Syracuse to scout on after not having much on him. Further, the expectation is that UNLV will beat this team by margin, which I push back against with the likes of Trebor Pena and Oronde Gadsen putting pressure on the secondary. 

Syracuse’s defense may leave some to be desired, but the team has done a great job of shutting down big plays to date thus far, right around the national average in terms of EPA/Play and are the far more talented team. 

I’ll happily fade the Rebels off a massive win.

UCLA vs. Penn State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Penn State (-10000)

Missouri vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Pick

Pick: Missouri (+102)

SMU vs. Louisville Prediction and Pick

Pick: Louisville (-240)

Iowa vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Ohio State (-2000)

Auburn vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick

Pick: Georgia (-2400)

Ole Miss vs. South Carolina Prediction and Pick

Pick: South Carolina (+250)

Indiana vs. Northwestern Prediction and Pick

Pick: Indiana (-650)

The Indiana hype train continues. 

At 5-0, the Hoosiers are a win away from going over its preseason win total, and it should get it on the road against Northwestern on Saturday. 

The Wildcats offense is among the worst in college football this season, 123rd in yards per play this season and posting the second worst EPA/Pass mark in the country. 

The Hoosiers will face a sturdy Northwestern defense that is 37th in yards per play, but I’m not convinced this offense can move the ball against a physical Indiana defense that is 16th in tackles for loss this season. 

IU should wear down Northwestern and pick up another victory as it climbs the Big Ten standings. 

Alabama vs. Vanderbilt Prediction and Pick

Pick; Alabama (-2500)

Clemson vs. Florida State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Clemson (-670)

Florida State will turn quarterback duties over to backup Brock Glenn in place of the injured D.J. Uiagalelei, but I’m not sure that changes much for the dismal Seminoles. 

To me, if Glenn was any sort of good, Mike Norvell would’ve inserted him for the ineffective Uigalelei already this season. The fact that it took a hand injury for Norvell to make a move as the Seminoles started 1-4, I’m not confident. 

The offense is likely going to struggle to hold up at all against a Clemson defense that bolsters a talented defense, ranking 26th in havoc rate this season. The unit has been prone to explosive plays, ranking only 68th in EPA/Play, but I do believe part of that is due to game script in both directions. 

Meanwhile, the offense is starting to gel nicely, as the Georgia game in which the team scored three points appears to be more of an outlier than the norm this season. The Tigers are averaging more than three points per drive and rank 17th in yards per play at over seven per snap. The Seminoles simply don’t have the ability to match any sort of offense given the state of its roster and inability at quarterback. 

With Riley’s ability to scheme players open for Klubnik with a revitalized passing game, the Seminoles defense will likely be up against it, ranking 125th in EPA/Pass this season. 

I’m trusting the Tigers to get it done as the Seminoles continue to slip further and further into the basement of the ACC. 

Utah State vs. Boise State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Boise State (-4000)

Tennessee vs. Arkansas Prediction and Pick

Pick: Tennessee (-550)

Michigan vs. Washington Prediction and Pick

Pick: Washington (-137)

Michigan’s offense is incredibly one-dimensional. The team runs the ball at a service academy rate, 15th in the nation at 62%. 

Orji is not a capable passer, completing 17-of-35 passes across two starts this season for 118 yards and an interception. However, the threat of Orji as a rusher has helped a ton, he has carried the ball 22 times for 55 yards and has opened up lanes for the likes of Mullings and Edwards. 

However, this is a sturdy Washington defense is right at the national average in defensive line yards and eighth in yards per play. The team has been plagued by penalties, bottom five in the country in penalty yards per game, but is top five in tackling, which makes me confident the team can limit explosive plays. 

Offenses that can spread out the Wolverines and pass the ball, avoiding the team’s elite defensive line, have been able to find success. Michigan is ninth in yards per carry allowed, but is 55th in EPA/Pass allowed and prone to explosive plays, 1114th in explosive pass rate. 

It’s worth noting against a Michigan defense that blitzes at a high rate, Rogers has had success. The Huskies quarterback is completing nearly 68% of his passes when blitzed this season with four big time throws to zero turnover worthy plays. 

This matchup sets up nicely for Washington to score a home win in a low scoring affair with Rogers and the Huskies passing game showing out. 

USC vs. Minnesota Prediction and Pick

Pick: USC (-315)

Baylor vs. Iowa State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Iowa State (-480)

Miami (Florida) vs. Cal Prediction and Pick

Pick: Miami (Florida): (-350)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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