College Football Straight Up Picks for Top 25 Games in Week 4: Who Wins Coin Flip Utah and Oklahoma State?

Reed Wallach | Sep 17, 2024

Oklahoma State's Ollie Gordon II (0) celebrates in the second half of the college football game between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and the Arkansas Razorbacks at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Okla.,, Saturday, Sept., 7, 2024. / SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK

College football season continues with a majority of teams beginning conference play this weekend.

A ton of eyes will be on Utah's Big 12 debut. The Utes enter its new league as the projected favorites but already have had to deal with injuries to the likes of star quarterback Cam Rising. It won't be an easy opener against last season's runners-up Oklahoma State. How should we bet it?

We have picks for every Top 25 matchup on Saturday below!

Season Record: 35-8

Straight Up Picks for Top 25 College Football Teams in Week 4

Illinois vs. Nebraska Prediction and Pick

Pick: Nebraska (-320)

Marshall vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Ohio State (N/A)

NC State vs. Clemson Prediction and Pick

Pick: Clemson (-1500)

Arkansas State vs. Iowa State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Iowa State (-1500)

Kent State vs. Penn State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Penn State -49

USC vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

Pick: USC (-205)

Michigan will start run-first quarterback Alex Orji in hopes of jump-starting its season in Big Ten play, but unfortunately, Orji is not a viable passer. Here's what we shared in our betting preview for this one:

Orji has only attempted six passes in three games for 15 total yards while rushing 10 times for 58 yards. Orji isn’t a viable passer but may give the team an opportunity to assert its dominance on the ground.

USC can implement a similar game plan that Texas did on offense, spreading out Michigan's defense and using the quick passing game to move the ball down the field. Ultimately, the Wolverines' lack of offense will cost the team yet again in a low-scoring affair.

UCLA vs. LSU Prediction and Pick

Pick: LSU (-4000)

Miami (Ohio) vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick

Pikc: Notre Dame (-10000)

Georgia Tech vs. Louisville Prediction and Pick

Pick: Georgia Tech (+270)

I'll take a shot on the underdog Yellow Jackets, who have been no strangers to upsets this season, taking down Florida State on a neutral site in Week 0.

While that FSU win may not age as well, I'm not sure what to make of Louisville, who beat up on FCS opponent Austin Peay and G5 team Jacksonville State ahead of an early BYE week. Now, the team faces a far more tested team in Georgia Tech, who has proven it can play up to competition under head coach Brent Key.

The Yellow Jackets are 11-3 in a year-plus under Key as an underdog against the spread and a remarkable 8-5 straight up as an underdog.

Last season, Louisville was laying seven points on a neutral against Georgia Tech and held off the Yellow Jackets 39-34. To me, Louisville is a worse version this season and is still unproven. There is a ton of volatility to take the big underdog.

Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois Prediction and Pick

Pick: Northern Illinois (-650)

Utah vs. Oklahoma State Prediction and Pick

Pick: Oklahoma State (+110)

This number moved quickly towards the Utes with the news that Rising and key wide receiver Dorian Singer will be available for the Big 12 opener for each team. However, I think Oklahoma State is being overlooked in this matchup.

The Pokes haven’t allowed a sack yet this season behind a veteran offensive line that may not be thriving in run blocking, 88th in line yards, and 98th in EPA/Rush, but the team is thriving through the air. Alan Bowman is anchoring an offense that is 19th in EPA/Pass and can test a Utah secondary that ranks outside the top 100 in explosive pass defense this season despite not facing a formidable passing game just yet.

Further, what is the state of Rising’s hand? While he appears to be fine, this is still a player who missed all of last season due to a serious knee injury and had questions entering the season. This will be his first test and I believe there is downside risk to him more so than the typical quarterback given his mobility questions.

I’m curious to see the state of Utah’s offense while we have seen Oklahoma State post big numbers already this season despite a struggling run game.

In a game I make a PK, I'll take the home underdog.

Vanderbilt vs. Missouri Prediction and Pick

Pick: Missouri (-1700)

Miami vs. South Florida Prediction and Pick

Pick: Miami (-730)

Tennessee vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Pick

Pick: Tennessee (-265)

Bowling Green vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Pick

Pick: Texas A&M (-2100)

Georgia Southern vs. Ole Miss Prediction and Pick

Pick: Ole Miss (N/A)

Louisiana-Monroe vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

Pick: Texas (N/A)

Kansas State vs. BYU Prediction and Pick

Pick: BYU (+188)

The Cougars are a live underdog on Saturday night in Provo as I’m extremely concerned about this Kansas State team traveling and maintaining a high level of play that it showed against Arizona at home.

K-State was gashed by Tulane in Week 2 and this is a BYU team that has a lot of similarities to the Green Wave at quarterback with both BYU’s Retzlaff and Tulane’s Mensah taking shots down the field and stretching the secondary.

With the threat of the deep pass, with stud wide receiver Chase Roberts catching passes, BYU will be able to test the Wildcats secondary.

Meanwhile, BYU has shown a sturdy front seven that can get in the backfield, racking up 19 tackles for loss in three games. I’m curious if the Cougars can put K-State in obvious passing situations and turn Johnson into a passer out of necessity.

Johnson has made four big-time throws to three turnover-worthy plays this season, per Pro Football Focus, and has completed 50% of his throws of more than 10 yards, making up 33% of his passes.