College Football Upset Picks for Week 10: Can Michigan State Spoil Indiana's Undefeated Season?

Reed Wallach | 3 Hours Ago

Michigan State's Aidan Chiles runs for a gain against Iowa in the second quarter on Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As we hit November in college football, seasons are hitting a breaking point.

For some teams, College Football Playoff pressure gets higher and higher with every passing week, but can that lead to underdog betting opportunities? Here are two live underdogs that can turn the CFP race upside down on Saturday in Week 10 action.

Best College Football Upset Picks for Week 10

• Illinois (+130) vs. Minnesota
• Arkansas (+225) vs. Ole Miss
• Michigan State (+225) vs. Indiana

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Minnesota vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick

After getting smoked by Oregon on the road, Illinois is no longer the upstart Big Ten team that pundits are fawning over, and instead, it's Minnesota!

The Golden Gophers are winners of three straight, a wind-impacted game against USC, a close call at UCLA, and a blowout win against Maryland. Call me skeptical that this Minnesota team is a wagon that can go on the road and win with margin against an Illinois offense that is top third of the country in EPA/Play against a more difficult schedule.

While Illinois has struggled against its elite competition through the air, this group can test an overrated Minnesota secondary. 

It all stems from the Golden Gophers’ lack of pressure, ranking 71st in pass rush grade this season, per Pro Football Focus. 

If Altmyer has time, he has been elite all year long. When he is kept clean, Altmyer is completing two-thirds of his passes with 14 touchdowns to only three interceptions. When he is under pressure, he is completing 50% of his passes with only one touchdown. 

PICK: Illinois +130

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Prediction and Pick

The Rebels have been an under-machine this season, going under the closing total in seven of eight games in 2024. The team’s offense has been elite, but the defense has far surpassed expectations. Further, with injuries mounting on the offensive side of the ball, the team has struggled to run up the scoreboard in SEC play, failing to score more than 27 points in four contests. 

The team will travel to Fayetteville to take on Arkansas, who has been vulnerable to big passing plays, but has also showcased a strong defensive line that can put the Rebels in obvious passing downs. The Razorbacks defense is 38th in EPA/Play on early downs, and 36th in average third and fourth down success rate. Ole Miss has struggled on third down relative to expectations, only 49th in third and fourth down success rate. 

Meanwhile, we saw Arkansas implement a rush-heavy script against Tennessee in a stunning upset a few weeks back, and can we see something similar here? 

Arkansas is an elite rushing unit, top 10 in the country in success rate on the ground. Further, the team has been fantastic at extending drives, converting 48.5% of third downs which is 12th in the country. 

I like the Hogs to be a running dog in this one and keep it within score, and possibly pull the upset. 

PICK: Arkansas (+220)

Indiana vs. Michigan State Prediciton and Pick

The Hoosiers' undefeated season is starting to hit a breaking point. While the team is elite, it’s starting to run a bit lucky on variance-driven plays, including forcing turnovers at an unsustainable clip. The Hoosiers have forced 14 turnovers and had a pick-six to start the game against Washington. 

I’m still curious to see how IU handles being behind on the scoreboard, something the team hasn’t dealt with all season to date. Can Michigan State get off to a strong start under head coach Jonathan Smith to put some scoreboard pressure on the Hoosiers? 

Michigan State’s offense has plenty of upside with the emergence of freshman Nick Marsh but has been plagued by turnovers all season, turning it over at a bottom-20 rate in the country. However, the team has done a good job of staying on schedule, the top half of the nation in success rate and yards per play. 

Meanwhile, the defensive line is the strength of the unit, ranking among the top 35 in defensive line yards and EPA/Rush. If Rourke has any issues with his thumb and the Hoosiers' passing attack takes a dip, this can be a struggle on offense. 

It’s baked into the number so this isn’t an insanely valuable bet, but I do believe Michigan State is a live underdog this weekend at home. 

PICK: Michigan State +225

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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