%20%20--%3E%0A%3Csvg%20version%3D%221.1%22%20id%3D%22Layer_1%22%20xmlns%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F2000%2Fsvg%22%20xmlns%3Axlink%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.w3.org%2F1999%2Fxlink%22%20x%3D%220px%22%20y%3D%220px%22%0A%09%20width%3D%2239px%22%20height%3D%2240px%22%20viewBox%3D%220%200%2039%2040%22%20enable-background%3D%22new%200%200%2039%2040%22%20xml%3Aspace%3D%22preserve%22%3E%0A%3Cpath%20fill%3D%22%23FFFFFF%22%20d%3D%22M38.5%2C7H28.2v26h10.3V7z%22%2F%3E%0A%3Cpath%20fill-rule%3D%22evenodd%22%20clip-rule%3D%22evenodd%22%20fill%3D%22%23FFFFFF%22%20d%3D%22M26.1%2C25.5c0%2C5.8-4.1%2C7.5-12.9%2C7.5C3.9%2C33%2C0%2C31.2%2C0%2C25.2v-1.1h11.6%0A%09v2.4c0%2C0.7%2C0.1%2C1.4%2C1.2%2C1.4c1%2C0%2C1.2-0.4%2C1.2-1.3v-0.9c0-1.6-0.9-1.6-3.5-2.2C2.2%2C21.7%2C0%2C19.7%2C0%2C15.3v-0.9C0%2C9.3%2C5.5%2C7%2C12.9%2C7%0A%09c10.2%2C0%2C12.8%2C2.6%2C12.8%2C7.4v1.8h-11v-2.9c0-0.6-0.4-1.1-1.2-1.1c-0.6%2C0-1.2%2C0.4-1.2%2C1.1v0.9c0%2C1.5%2C0.9%2C2%2C3.3%2C2.5%0A%09c8%2C1.6%2C10.5%2C3.3%2C10.5%2C7.5V25.5z%22%2F%3E%0A%3C%2Fsvg%3E%0A)
College Football Upset Picks for Week 11: Army's Unbeaten Season in Trouble?
As we march closer to the College Football Playoff, some teams are trending up and down.
While some teams are peaking towards the end of the season, others are coming to grips with failed expectations. In other cases, undefeated CFP hopefuls are hoping to bolster their cases, but tricky road games stand in their respective way, including Army and BYU.
Which teams are on upset alert in Week 11?
Find out below!
College Football Upset Picks for Week 11
- Rice (+260) vs. Memphis
- North Texas (+172) vs. Army
- Utah (+150) vs. BYU
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Rice vs. Memphis Prediction and Pick
Memphis continues to be untrustworthy as a favorite this season, 2-5 against the spread when facing FBS foes this season.
Meanwhile, Rice is entering its second game under interim head coach Pete Alamar, but the team has been trending up for quite some time. The Owls have covered in four straight games (depending on the number you bet) out of its BYE week and now will be catching a big number yet again.
The Owls defense has been sturdy all season, but the offense has lagged behind. The team is top 10 in tackles for loss this season and grades out top 20 in yards per play allowed, which can keep this game tighter than the points spread would indicate.
Now, Rice’s offense continues to be middling, but the team has been formidable on the ground, ranking top 30 in explosive rush rate while playing at a slow tempo (105th in seconds per play). This is notable against Memphis, who is outside the top 100 in explosive rush rate allowed and has allowed 40 or more in three straight games, failing to cover in all three.
Rice can slow this game down and continue its upward trajectory, look out Memphis.
PICK: Rice (+220)
North Texas vs. Army Prediction and Pick
Army hasn’t faced an offense inside the top 80 in EPA/Play this season, which means the team is in for a rude awakening against North Texas on Saturday, which is 17th in that metric.
Not to mention, Bryson Daily’s status is up in the air after being a late scratch for the Black Knights game against Air Force last week. If Daily can’t go, the offense takes a significant step back and will be needed in a big way against North Texas’ high-octane O.
There’s a ton of variance in this one, leading me to side with the big home underdog.
PICK: North Texas (+172)
Utah vs. BYU Prediction and Pick
As has become custom in the Big 12 this season, the difference between the top and bottom of the league is marginal, and we have another opportunity to bet on that idea on Saturday night.
While the Utah offense has fallen off a cliff without Cam Rising on the field, the team still has a more than capable running back in Micah Bernard and an elite defense.
The BYU defense remains vulnerable against the run, 96th in EPA/Rush and 103rd in explosive rush defense while ranking outside the top 100 in tackles for loss. If Utah is able to lean on a well-rested Bernard and put the likes of Rose (or Wilson) in favorable down and distances, the Utah offense may be set up for success.
In a matchup with a low total, look for Utah’s defense to set the tone against BYU.
As has become custom in the Big 12 this season, the difference between the top and bottom of the league is marginal, and we have another opportunity to bet on that idea on Saturday night.
While the Utah offense has fallen off a cliff without Cam Rising on the field, the team still has a more than capable running back in Micah Bernard and an elite defense.
The BYU defense remains vulnerable against the run, 96th in EPA/Rush and 103rd in explosive rush defense while ranking outside the top 100 in tackles for loss. If Utah is able to lean on a well-rested Bernard and put the likes of Rose (or Wilson) in favorable down and distances, the Utah offense may be set up for success.
In a matchup with a low total, look for Utah’s defense to set the tone against BYU.
The unit is 10th in EPA/Play and No. 1 in the nation in success rate.
It’s worth noting that BYU has played two defenses inside the top 70 in EPA/Play this season, home against Kansas State and at SMU. While the Cougars won both of those games, the offense averaged 5.15 yards per play across the two, which would be outside the top 100 nationally.
PICK: Utah (+150)
More College Football Stories
manual
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Reed is a Senior Editor at SI Betting. He grew up in New Jersey and graduated from the University of Wisconsin. His passion lies with the Brooklyn Nets, but is always hunting for an edge.