College Football Upset Picks for Week 8: Fade USC Amidst More Travel in Big Ten Play?

Reed Wallach | 3 Hours Ago

Oct 12, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Miller Moss (7) throws a pass in the first half against the Penn State Nittany Lions United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

As conference play continues to take its toll on teams, there are certain teams that continue to be played against and the market can't catch up to it.

Take USC, for example, which continues to grind through its first season in the Big Ten with incredibly lengthy travel. Can the team get off the mat after losing a heartbreaker in overtime to Penn State? Keep reading to find out why I'm fading the Trojans in this week's upset picks column.

Best College Football Upset Picks for Week 8

• Houston (+172) vs. Kansas
• Maryland (+215) vs. USC
• Georgia (+168) vs. Texas

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Houston vs. Kansas Prediction and Pick

It can be argued that Houston is the better team in this matchup that will be played at Arrowhead Stadium, but it certainly will have the best unit on the field with its sturdy defense. 

Willie Fritz quickly has his Cougars playing at a high level on defense, ranking 32nd in EPA/Play and 25th in success rate. Meanwhile, Kansas has fallen off offensively as quarterback Jalon Daniels has been loose with the rock, making 11 turnover-worthy plays already this season, per Pro Football Focus. 

With new quarterback Zeon Chriss unlocking Houston’s ground game that can attack the weak part of the KU defense, 101st in EPA/Rush, I believe the Cougs are undervalued to win this game outright. 

PICK: Houston (+172)

Maryland vs. USC Prediction and Pick

Many will be looking to fade Maryland after a disheartening Friday night loss to Northwestern, but this is the perfect buy low opportunity for the Terps. 

USC has injuries piling up on the defensive side of the ball, losing linebacker Eric Gentry and defensive end Anthony Lucas and will be making its third cross country trip in five weeks. The team has gone from Michigan, back to LA, to play Minnesota, back to LA and are now set to face Maryland for its fifth game in as many weeks. 

While Maryland’s secondary can be vulnerable, the defense is top 10 in turnovers gained and has a strong set of skill position players as well, namely Tai Felton. 

This is playing against a gassed USC team that’s season is circling the drain, now 3-3. 

PICK: USC (+215)

Georgia vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

In the biggest game of the season to date, I’ll side with the road underdog. 

This number has drifted towards Texas based on results this season, but the Longhorns have yet to face a team that is elite on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, Georgia was knocked off by Alabama on the road, but despite spotting the Crimson Tide 28 points in that matchup, the Bulldogs had the lead with a few minutes to go. 

While the Texas offense gets a lot of credit under Steve Sarkisian's tutelage, the team’s ground game may be ineffective against the vaunted Georgia defensive line. If the team isn’t able to get into third and manageable for this game, the pressure will pick up on Ewers to make plays with his arm as he is far less mobile than someone like Jalen Milroe, who gave Georgia fits in the Bulldogs' loss. 

Meanwhile, Texas hasn’t faced a legitimate offense to date, will the team feel the effects of losing two NFL defensive linemen in this type of matchup, which has been masked in every other game this season? 

This is way too much respect for Texas. I’ll take the team that everyone pegged as the National Championship favorite and was favored in Tuscaloosa a few short weeks ago to get off to a stronger start and keep this within a field goal. 

PICK: Georgia (+168)

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