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College Football Upset Picks for Week 3: Oklahoma on Upset Watch vs. Tulane?
With non-confernece play coming to an end, will teams let its guard down? Will some teams be eyeing league play and get caught looking ahead?
Oklahoma has not looked the part just yet in 2024, and it may not get any easier with a strong Tulane team coming to Norman on Saturday. With its first SEC game on deck, will Oklahoma be able to avoid a massive upset after avoiding one in Week 2?
Here are my favorite upset picks for Week 3.
Best College Football Upset Picks for Week 3
- Tulane +420 vs. Oklahoma
- East Carolina +112 vs. Appalachian State
- Virginia +112 vs. Maryland
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Tulane vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Pick
Oklahoma’s offense has looked far from the expectation this season. The team averaged about four yards per play against Houston and posted a negative EPA/Dropback in its first two games.
The Sooners offense will need to pick it up, but it will be tough sledding against a Tulane defense that has proven to be an elite outfit under new head coach Jon Sumrall, out-gaining Kansas State in a tight loss last week.
The Green Wave racked up five tackles for loss against the Wildcats, and I’m cautiously optimistic that the team can get pressure against an OU offensive line that has allowed 11 TFL’s in two games already this season against worse defenses.
While Mensah will need to prove he can make sound decisions on the road against a talented OU team, I’m confident that the team can keep this within two scores. The drop-off for Tulane is not very big, if it exists, under a new coaching staff, while OU may be going through some growing pains this season as it prepares for life in the SEC.
With Tennessee on deck in its SEC opener, this can be a tricky spot as long as Tulane gets off the mat after a near upset last week. At this big of a price tag, I’ll jump on the underdog.
PICK: Tulane +420
East Carolina vs. Appalachian State Prediction and Pick
Are we sure the Mountaineers are worthy of being favorites on the road against an upstart Pirates team?
ECU’s offense has gotten an upgrade this season by landing former Miami and Missouri quarterback Jake Garcia and Ole Miss co-offensive coordinator John David Baker. While Garcia has been making mistakes with his decision making, he has thrown seven interceptions in two games (!), I’m willing to buy in on this Pirates offense at home against an Appalachian State defense that doesn’t look the part this season.
App. State allowed 63 points to Clemson, and while ECU is not as good as an ACC Championship contender, the team does have a capable offense as well as a sound defense that is fresh off a season in which it ranked 38th in yards per play allowed.
ECU is a team trending up, while I’m not certain this Appalachian State team has as much upside as the preseason odds indicated.
If Garcia can clean up the mistakes, look for ECU to be a factor in the AAC Championship race. The team will score a third win at home on Saturday.
PICK: East Carolina +112
Virginia vs. Maryland Prediction and Pick
Last season, Maryland used a fourth quarter surge to make the score line look much worse against Virginia than the game actually was. Despite a 42-14 win for the Terps, Virginia was down seven at the start of the fourth quarter and were only out-gained by about 100 yards. However, the team lost the turnover battle 4-0.
Virginia will start the same quarterback on Saturday as last season, Anthony Colandrea, who has proven to be far better than other option Tony Muskett. While he makes some questionable decisions at times, he has a fairly high ceiling, evident in engineering a second half comeback against Wake Forest on the road.
Maryland’s secondary was gashed by Michigan State’s gun slinging quarterback Aidan Chiles, and there are some similarities between Aidan Chiles and Colandrea. While the Terps turned over Chiles three times last week in a three-point loss to the Spartans, MSU racked up nearly 500 yards and more than seven yards per play.
Virginia’s passing game can test Maryland in a similar fashion, and on the road with a the Woos trending upward, I’ll bank on the home underdog to get it done.
PICK: Virginia +112
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REED WALLACH
Reed is a Senior Editor at SI Betting. He grew up in New Jersey and graduated from the University of Wisconsin. His passion lies with the Brooklyn Nets, but is always hunting for an edge.