College Football Upset Picks for Week 6: Wrong Team Favored in Stillwater?

Reed Wallach | 3 Hours Ago

Sep 21, 2024; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Garrett Greene (6) throws a pass and is rushed by Kansas Jayhawks linebacker JB Brown (1) during the first quarter at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images / Ben Queen-Imagn Images

College football season is full of chaos, and while some teams may appear better than others, there's a buy price on every team.

Are we sure we know the correct difference between the likes of Oklahoma State and West Virginia? What about Miami (Ohio) and Toledo after the RedHawks played a grueling non-conference schedule? Lastly, on Friday night, UNLV is getting a significant boost in power rating, but can it justify its worth as a big favorite against a talented Syracuse team?

Let's discuss some upset candidates on the Week 6 card.

College Football Upset Picks for Week 6

• Syracuse (+190) vs. UNLV
• West Virginia (+130) vs. Oklahoma State 
• Miami (Ohio) (190) vs. Toledo

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Syracuse vs. UNLV Prediction and Pick

This is a massive overreaction to the UNLV win against Fresno State last week, which was indeed impressive, but this is a big upgrade after the team closed inside of a field goal against the Bulldogs. 

Syracuse has been a high octane offense that is 29th in EPA/Pass and averaging more than three points per game. This will be the first offense that the Rebels new look defense has faced that is inside the top 50 in EPA/Pass. 

The Rebels, meanwhile, may have gone to a better passer in Williams, but there is now film for Syracuse to scout on after not having much on him. Further, the expectation is that UNLV will beat this team by margin, which I push back against with the likes of Trebor Pena and Oronde Gadsen putting pressure on the secondary. 

Syracuse’s defense may leave some to be desired, but the team has done a great job of shutting down big plays to date thus far, right around the national average in terms of EPA/Play and are the far more talented team. 

I’ll happily fade the Rebels off a massive win.

PICK: Syracuse +190

West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State Prediction and Pick

It’s tough to get a gauge on Oklahoma State, who is 111th in net yards per play this season. 

The Pokes entered this season as a Big 12 Championship contender, but are quickly up against it after losing its first two Big 12 games against Utah and Kansas State. 

The team welcomes West Virginia, who is off a BYE week, to Stillwater, who may have some defensive struggles against the pass (129th in EPA/Pass), but does have a dynamic run game that is 35th in EPA/Rush. 

West Virginia has been lit up by some explosive passes, but this Oklahoma State offense hasn’t been trustworthy jus tyet, 62nd in EPA/Play behind a struggling run game around Ollie Gordon, who is averaging fewer than four yards per carry on the year. 

I’m not trying to catch the falling knife with Oklahoma State, I think there’s some serious downside that can lead to a third straight loss for the Pokes. 

PICK: West Virginia +130

Miami (Ohio) vs. Toledo Prediction and Pick

In a rematch from the 2023 MAC Championship Game, I’m going to side with the RedHawks at a big price. 

Miami could be on fumes after a grueling start to the season, facing Northwestern on the road, Cincinnati at home and at Notre Dame before escaping a weather-impacted game against UMass. 

Chuck Martin’s bunch is only 1-3, but you can make an argument the team is better than 3-1 Toledo, who beat a shell of a Mississippi State team, UMass, Duquesne and lost to Western Kentucky on the road. 

There is a massive gap in strength of schedule that can define this matchup as Miami is 117th in net EPA/Play while Toledo is 59th, but I believe that the best unit on the field is far and away the RedHawks, who are still top half of the country in EPA/Play and will face a Toledo team that is bottom five in the nation in pass blocking grade, per Pro Football Focus. 

The Rockets’ run game has been non-existent this season, and I believe Miami (Ohio) can shut down the offense overall en route to a low scoring affair where I’ll side with the defending champs to stun Toledo on the road. 

PICK: Miami (Ohio) +190

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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