College Football Week 2 Upset Picks (Can Illinois Stun Kansas as Home Underdogs?)

Reed Wallach | Sep 3, 2024

Nov 4, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) celebrates his touchdown pass to wide receiver Isaiah Williams (1) during the first half against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports / Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

College football is typically full of big upsets, but with a lot of projected blowouts in Week 1, the chalk held serve.

However, there are about double the amount of single digit spread games in Week 2, can the dogs start to bark this college football season?

I have three below that are projected single digit spread games that I believe the underdog can pull the upset. Let's get to it, highlighted by my thoughts between Illinois and Kansas on Saturday night.

College Football Upset Picks for Week 2

• Army (+140) vs. Florida Atlantic
• Illinois (+184) vs. Kansas
• Tulsa (+225) vs. Arkansas State

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Army vs. Florida Atlantic Prediction and Pick

Florida Atlantic struggled against Michigan State on the road on Friday as transfer quarterback Cam Fancher looked lost in the pocket. Fancher completed less than 50% of his passes for 87 yards with two interceptions while rushing for 76 yards. 

I can’t trust FAU, who was able to stay within shouting distance of Michigan State due to some timely turnovers in the red zone, against a triple option team like Army. 

The Black Knights beat up on FCS foe Lehigh, as expected, but this can be a great opening FBS opponent for Army in AAC play with FAU’s lack of ability to stop the ground game of Sparty last week, posting a sixth percentile run stuff rate and allowing Michigan State to run for 5.5 yards per carry. 

I’ll grab Army at a plus money price as I’m not sure we are getting a full downgrade on the Owls. 

PICK: Army +140

Illinois vs. Kansas Prediction and Pick

Last season, the Jayhawks won 34-23 while racking up 539 yards to the Fighting Illini’s 341 yards, but I’m going to back the resurgent home underdog in this one. 

Illinois’ offense should be far improved this season with another year of Luke Altmyer under center and the emergence of Feagin as the lead running back. Feagin is a gigantic running back who can overwhelm an undersized Kansas defensive line that lacks the size to close up rushing lanes. The Jayhawks are counting on FCS transfers to fill the void of losing its best pass rusher from a year ago in Austin Booker. 

It also helps that Illinois' offense seems more improved in the passing game as well with the emergence of Pat Byrant and Ole Miss transfer Zakhari Franklin.

Further, Illinois’ defense should be far improved relative to last season after replacing now Purdue head coach Ryan Walters as defensive coordinator as well as two pros in the secondary, including top-five pick Devin Witherspoon. 

The Illini should be better in the secondary and limit the explosiveness from Kansas’ passing game. 

Further, I’m willing to pay to see Daniels show his full health that featured him as a dynamic dual-threat weapon in the unique KU offense, which is replacing Andy Kotelnecki as offensive coordinator. 

This is a big number to trust the Jayhawks, who enter with a few more questions than the home underdog. 

PICK: Illinois +184

Tulsa vs. Arkansas State Prediction and Pick

Arkansas State can’t be trusted as a favorite of over a touchdown as the Red Wolves’ style of play welcomes way too much variance. 

First, Arkansas State should’ve lost to Central Arkansas in Week 1, as the Sun Belt noted on Wednesday afternoon, and I believe that Tulsa’s offense can put up similar numbers and potentially hand the favorite a well deserved loss. 

Central Arkansas was able to post more than seven yards per play against Arkansas State’s defense, while the Red Wolves answered with about five yards per snap in the come from behind win. 

Meanwhile, Tulsa’s offense looks to be far better this season, year two of the Kevin Wilson era. While the team feasted on a poor FCS opponent in Northwestern State, the Golden Hurricanes passed for 299 yards on nearly 10 yards per dropback. 

The Red Wolves secondary was poor last year, ranking 130th in completion percentage allowed and 115th in EPA/Pass, and it doesn’t seem to be much better this season. 

I’ll play against the darling of the Sun Belt heading into the season in Arkansas State, who is being overvalued against a potentially frisky Tulsa squad. 

PICK: Tulsa +225

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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