College Football Week 7 Upset Picks: Trust LSU in Death Valley Night Games

Reed Wallach | 2 Hours Ago

Sep 28, 2024; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; LSU Tigers wide receiver Aaron Anderson (1) celebrates a touchdown with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier (13) against the South Alabama Jaguars during the first quarter at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

After a week of titanic upsets, how do we follow it up?

While I'm not going for as big of upsets as Vanderbilt beating Alabama or Arkansas beating Tennessee, I will focus on three Top 25 teams I believe are on upset alert, including Ole Miss, who takes the trip to Death Valley to face LSU.

Here are my three favorite upset picks for Saturday's Week 7.

Best Upset Picks for College Football Week 7

• Arizona (+160) vs. BYU
• LSU (+132) vs. Ole Miss
• Colorado (+150) vs. Kansas State

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Arizona vs. BYU Prediction and Pick

Arizona is a tricky team to get a beat on. The team has disheartening losses to the likes of Kansas State and home to Texas Tech but knocked off Utah on the road. 

Meanwhile, BYU is enjoying a strong start to the season, beating the same Kansas State team that blew out Arizona at home as well as winning at SMU. 

It’s worth noting that BYU continues to get huge upgrades in the market, closing as a three-point underdog at Baylor and now laying north of a field goal against an Arizona team that was favored by more than a field goal against Texas Tech. 

You are paying a premium to back the Cougars, who may look the part but have benefitted from a +4 turnover margin this season and a top 20 red zone touchdown percentage mark on defense. 

Meanwhile, Arizona has been mercurial to start the season, but still ranks top 25 in yards per play and sacks allowed. The key will be if Fifita can protect the ball against a well-rested BYU defense.

With a low total, below 50, as of this writing, I believe the Wildcats can hang around and test a BYU team that is being overrated in the betting market, and there’s enough variance to go for a moneyline bet.

PICK: Arizona (+160)

Ole Miss vs. LSU Prediction and Pick

This is a brutal setup for Ole Miss, who is playing its seventh straight game on the road against LSU at one of the toughest venues in the country. 

While Ole Miss has been the more complete team thus far, the LSU defense still has faults under new defensive coordinator Blake Baker, the team will be well-rested and as healthy as it has been all season against the Rebels, who have a building list of injuries. 

After playing the likes of Kentucky and South Carolina, two defenses that are inside the top 25 nationally in EPA/Play, the Ole Miss offense is starting to run on fumes. 

With several offensive linemen banged up, in addition to star wide receiver Tre Harris, edge rusher Princely Umanmielen, and running back Henry Parrish, the Rebels are limping into this one. 

Further, while the Tigers have been struggling on defense, LSU has a stout pass rush, top 15 in the country, per Pro Football Focus. Can the team force enough negative plays to get enough stops? 

On the other side of the ball, Ole Miss has benefitted from an easy crop of opposing offenses. The LSU group will have a full week to prepare for an elite Rebels pass rush, but one that hasn’t been tested in the passing game. The Rebels haven’t faced an offense inside the top half of the country in EPA/Pass this season. 

This is a perfect setup for LSU to cover as three-point home underdogs, and potentially win outright. Don’t sleep on the Tigers, who are 108-15 in home night games, including 12-0 under Brian Kelly.

PICK: LSU +132

Kansas State vs. Colorado Prediction and Pick

This is a poor matchup for Kansas State against Colorado’s high octane offense. 

The Wildcats defense is elite against the run, ranking fifth in EPA/Rush and 16th in yards per carry allowed, but the Buffaloes are a pass-happy offense. Colorado passes the ball nearly 62% of the time when it possesses the ball, fifth in the country. 

For Kansas State, that’s a grave concern. The Wildcats are bottom 10 in the country in terms of pass rush grade, per Pro Football Focus, and are 88th in EPA/Pass. 

Meanwhile, the Buffaloes proved that it’s improving on the defensive side of the ball, particularly against the run, 38th in defensive line yards and 44th in EPA/Rush, which is massive against a run-first K-State offense. 

If the Wildcats fall behind, it’s going to be tough sledding to come from behind given Johnson’s inability to pass the ball effectively. K-State is sixth in EPA/Rush and 59th in EPA/Pass. 

I’ll take the points with the live underdog. 

PICK: Colorado +150

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